The Star Tribune’s Mila Koumpilova reports: “The Minnesota State Colleges and Universities system is gearing up to make an ambitious funding request to state lawmakers in exchange for a pledge to freeze undergraduate tuition. The system is planning to seek $246 million more in state dollars over two years, or a hike of more than 17 percent for the biennium. The money would fund employee pay increases and other operational costs at the system’s seven universities and 30 colleges ….
Also in the Star Tribune, Libor Jany writes: “Helen Washington told her grandson over and over to stop putting his cup of tea on her furniture. After he kept doing it anyway, the 75-year-old shot him, Hennepin County prosecutors allege. When police arrived, the victim was waiting for them in the front yard of the residence in the 5800 block of Camden Avenue N. in Brooklyn Center with a gunshot wound to the right thigh, a criminal complaint said. … Washington, 75, now faces charges of second-degree assault with a dangerous weapon, a felony.
Says Dave Orrick of the PiPress on the Ellison divorce files: “You can judge for yourselves…but there’s nothing implicating Keith Ellison of anything salacious. Nothing like that at all in the public records. … the records lay bare features of the demise of the 25-year marriage between the two elected officials. Kim Ellison serves on the Minneapolis Board of Education. The records date back to when the couple legally separated in 2011, when two of their four children were minors. As the Ellisons feared, some of the documents now public do contain details that appear to be tied to what Kim Ellison described Tuesday as depression following her diagnosis with multiple sclerosis. As many who have been party to a divorce can attest, they’re often messy. And the Ellisons’ was, too.”
In the Pioneer Press, Mara H. Gottfried reports: “A hail of bullets injured two men and pierced the wall of a St. Paul home on Tuesday afternoon, according to police. A 19-year-old was shot in the lower back in the Frogtown area and needed surgery … Soon after, an 18-year-old arrived at Regions Hospital with a gunshot wound to his hand. Both men are expected to recover …. Police were called to the area of Sherburne Avenue and Kent Street at about 2:40 p.m. on Tuesday. …More than 20 shots had been fired, according to Linders.”
For The Hill, John Bowden writes, “Two Republicans in Minnesota said they have been physically attacked in the past few days by assailants who were angry about their politics. The Associated Press reported Wednesday that state Rep. Sarah Anderson (R) was attacked Sunday by an unidentified male who she says she confronted after finding him kicking down several of her yard signs. … Another Republican, Minnesota House District 15b candidate Shane Mekeland, told the Star Tribune he was attacked Friday during a campaign event at a bar by a ‘much bigger person’ who left him with a concussion.”
[cms_ad:x100]An AP story says, “The Minnesota Supreme Court has dismissed a U.S. Senate candidate’s petition to change his political party affiliation on the Nov. 6 ballot. Twin Cities businessman Jerry Trooien is running for the seat once held by former Sen. Al Franken. Trooien initially listed his party as ‘unaffiliated’ but wants to be listed as ‘independent.’ The Supreme Court dismissed his petition Wednesday, saying Trooien knew on Aug. 30 that he could list his party as independent. But he waited four weeks before filing a request for the change.”
Another AP story adds this on the missing Wisconsin teenager. “Authorities say a missing Wisconsin girl’s parents were shot to death and that they believe she was in the home at the time. Police have been searching for 13-year-old Jayme Closs since early Monday, when deputies responding to a 911 call from her home in Barron found her parents, James and Denise Closs, dead in the house. Barron County Sheriff Chris Fitzgerald said at a news conference Wednesday that autopsies confirmed the couple was shot. He says there was no gun at the scene and that evidence from the scene and from the 911 call indicate that Jayme Closs was in the house.”
For a new generation of political activists who came of age after the 1990s, the term “progressive Republican” must sound like an oxymoron. But this now extinct strain of Republicanism did, in fact, represent the mainstream of Minnesota’s GOP at an earlier time. A new book by Dave Durenberger with Lori Sturdevant, “When Republicans Were Progressive,” recounts the rise and fall of a political movement in Minnesota that eventually succumbed to the onslaught of the far right.
Durenberger, a former U.S. senator, traces the origins of his party’s progressive tilt back to the election of Harold Stassen as Minnesota’s governor in 1938. Known as the boy governor, Stassen took office when he was only 31. The charismatic young Republican ended eight years of the left-leaning Farmer Labor party’s hold on the state’s highest office. But Durenberger tells us that Stassen did not intend to reverse the Farmer Labor party’s expansionist policies, aligned with the Roosevelt administration’ New Deal. Instead, Stassen implied that he would achieve many of the Farmer Laborites’ aims but do so more efficiently and with more transparency.
Stassen’s landslide victory in 1938 initiated a period of progressive Republican ascendancy in Minnesota extending well into the postwar era. During the next three decades, Republicans in the mold of Stassen occupied the governor’s office for all but eight of those years. After Stassen, notable progressive Republican governors included Luther Youngdahl, who oversaw the reform of the state’s mental institutions, and Elmer L. Andersen, who actively supported the passage of Minnesota’s landmark fair housing act.
‘For effective government’
Durenberger clearly views himself within the Stassen progressive tradition. That tradition, he explains, “stood not for big or small government but for effective government. It prized government not for its own sake but as a practical tool for creating the conditions that allowed its citizens to thrive. … It nurtured a sense of responsibility for the common good in both citizens and elected officials. It provided keen competition for other political parties while respecting its rivals’ contribution to the whole. It held that working across the aisle as well as across the country was a mark of strength, not weakness or disloyalty.”
[cms_ad:x100]Durenberger got his start in politics as an aide to Harold LeVander, a Stassen Republican who was elected governor in 1966. LeVander has been Stassen’s partner in a South St. Paul law firm. Later, the future Republican governor would offer Durenberger a job in the firm as a young associate when Durenberger graduated from the University of Minnesota Law School in 1959.
After working as an attorney and a Republican activist for more than 20 years, Durenberger got his chance to face the voters for the first time in 1978, That year, he had initially intended to run for governor, but soon discovered that Minnesota’s First District congressman, Al Quie, also had his eye on the job. When Quie was able to attract more support for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Durenberger switched to the ballot slot for the two-year Senate term left vacant by the death of Hubert Humphrey earlier in the year.
The ‘Minnesota Massacre’
In November, Durenberger and his running mates, Quie and Rudy Boschwitz, won all three of the state’s top political jobs, defeating their DFL opponents in an election that came to be known as the Minnesota Massacre. The LeVander protégé went on to serve three terms in the U.S. Senate, where he made a name for himself as the Republican’s leading authority on health care policy. But his last years in office were tarnished by ethics violation charges that later resulted in a disciplinary action by the full Senate.
When Durenberger took his seat in the Senate after the 1978 election, the political foundation for Minnesota’s progressive Republican movement was already beginning to crack. The 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision legalizing abortions during the first two trimesters of pregnancy contributed, in large part, to that fissure. Ironically, the Roe decision was issued by Justice Harry Blackman with the support of Chief Justice Warren Burger. Known as the “Minnesota Twins,” Burger and Blackman had grown up together in St. Paul. Both had ties to the Stassen wing of the Republican Party.
Durenberger, himself an abortion opponent, observed that Blackman’s ruling “ruptured a political hornet’s nest. The resulting furor would last for decades and would reshape both major parties in Minnesota.” Before Roe, the DFL had a major anti-abortion faction, while Minnesota Republicans included a significant group of pro-choice supporters. But soon advocates on both sides of this very divisive issue would sort themselves according to their party identity. The anti-abortion faction, virtually en masse, left the DFL and become Republicans. At the same time, pro-choice Republicans found they were not welcome in their party. Many of them gravitated to the DFL.
One last hurrah
Progressive Republicanism did have one last hurrah in Minnesota when Arne Carlson was elected governor in 1990. But in some ways Carlson was an accidental governor, moving up to the state’s top political job only because the Republican Party’s more conservative gubernatorial nominee dropped out of the general election race at the last minute because of a scandal.
By now, a new faction was gaining ascendancy in Minnesota’s Republican Party, according to Durenberger. “They were antiestablishment people with views on a number of issues that ran counter to the thinking that characterized the Stassen line. Many mistrusted and rejected public education. They were skeptical about science and hostile towards the teaching of evolution. They saw the women’s movement as a threat to traditional family values. The budding gay rights movement was sinful in their eyes.”
Taking advantage of Minnesota’s arcane precinct caucus system, right-leaning activists, many of whom considered themselves evangelical Christians, moved into positions of influence in the Republican party organization, displacing more mainstream party members who were part of the Stassen line.
During his 1988 re-election campaign, Durenberger was able to keep the right-wingers in his Minnesota Republican party at bay, in part because of his firm opposition to legalized abortion, but he would soon but heads with an emerging congressional faction led by the wily Newt Gingrich, then the House Minority Leader. Gingrich promoted a strategy of obstructionism, whose overriding aim was to deny Bill Clinton a second presidential term in 1996. Durenberger, who had hoped to broker a compromise over health care, found himself boxed in by Republican congressional leaders who refused to abandon their obstructionism and a Clinton administration that resisted efforts to make its health care plan, orchestrated by Hillary Clinton, more acceptable to Republicans.
State Republicans remove ‘Independent’
Frustrated by his party’s rightward move and beset with ethics problems, Durenberger decided to give up his Senate seat in 1994. The next year, when he was out of office, the Minnesota GOP made a symbolic move that distressed the now- former U.S. senator. Following the Watergate debacle, the state Republican organization had added the term “Independent” to its name, making it the Minnesota Independent Republican Party. Durenberger welcomed the name change because it signaled the party’s effort to move closer to the center of the political spectrum. But party leaders dropped the term “Independent” in 1995, signaling that they were now part of the national right wing Republican mainstream. Durenberger regretted the name change.
“In Minnesota, Republicans no longer saw an advantage in standing apart from the nation,” he noted. “They no longer sought to appeal to independents with a label that implied a philosophy only slightly right of the nation’s ideological center and signaled a willingness to be creative in solving problems.”
[cms_ad:x101]Out of office now for 25 years, Durenberger continues to be distressed by what he sees as the extreme polarization of the American politics that has only intensified with the election of Donald Trump. Durenberger says he is still a Republican because he is “loath to disavow a lifetime of affiliation.” Moreover, he believes that he is upholding conservative principles when he promotes “market rate approaches for delivering needed public services.” But the former Republican senator acknowledges that more often than not he is voting for Democrats — particularly at the federal level. He even discloses that he went as far as to display a Hillary Clinton lawn sign in his yard in 2016.
Durenberger does not want to end his book on a negative note, so his final chapter, “Reviving the Center,” looks ahead optimistically to a post-Trump world. “In a perverse way, Trump’s presidency could produce a backlash so intense that Americans are newly motivated to work for ‘a more perfect union,’ ” he writes.
“When Republicans Were Progressive” went to press before the recent battle over the Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination came to a head. That battle only served to further shrink any remaining middle ground in Washington.
Durenberger may sound a note of hope about the future, but this country appears to be headed toward an even deeper blue and red divide on Election Day, Nov 6. Durenberger and others like him may face insurmountable obstacles – at least in the foreseeable future — as they attempt to revive the center in American political life..
The approval ratings of President Donald Trump are better than they have been for a long time.
They are still bad. They are still under water (meaning more disapprovers than approvers). But his current bad disapproval number, according to the average of many polls maintained and calculated by HuffPost, stands at an average of 51.2 percent.
Obviously, that’s still above 50 percent. Obviously his approval number (per the Huff Post average) is lower and substantially lower (44.1 percent) than his disapproval number. So don’t uncork the champagne yet, oh ye Trump approvers. You are still outnumbered and by seven percentage points, which is more than a little.
Still, I force myself to repeat, Trump’s current disapproval number is the lowest it has been since March of 2017, two months into his presidency and his approval number is the highest since about the same time.
[cms_ad:x100]I say this with a weird sense of pride, in myself, because, unlike the current incumbent, I believe in dealing honestly with facts, even when they are not what I might wish they were.
I am not a huge admirer (nor approver) of Trump for many reasons, including his lying, his egotism, his ignorance, his pettiness, his policies, his hypocrisy, his lack of class or grace, his cruelty toward the less fortunate and, I guess I don’t have to go on but, at the moment, I can’t think of anything much about him that I do admire. And I struggle a bit to understand certain things, including the durability of his appeal to more than 30 percent and – at the moment, according to the HuffPost average — more than 40 percent of Americans of voting age.
Thanks to my current wonderful MinnPost gig (thank you MinnPost readers and members), I am allowed to express my opinions (as I guess I just did above). But I spent most of my adult life as a reporter, and I retain a certain reverence for facts, even for facts that I wish were not facts, such as the fact that Trump’s approval numbers have been improving recently and are now the best they have been for a year and a half.
So, when I started this little occasional Trump-approval-watch series, I committed to report the numbers honestly, even when I find them a bit strange. There are others who maintain similar averages to HuffPost, and they generally agree within a small range, but my practice has been to rely on HuffPost and to add into each update the weekly Gallup number, because of esteem for Gallup’s long history in the polling game.
So I will add that as of Monday, when Gallup posted its most recent Trump approval number, they found a significant bump up for Trump’s approval number over the past two weekly samples, and he now stands at 51 percent disapproval/44 percent approval, substantially the same as HuffPost.
The full Gallup chart of Trump’s weekly approval ups and downs since the week after his inauguration is viewable here.
This story about college costs was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education.
By most measures, Aboubacar Konate was an outstanding candidate for college.
Konate graduated second in his class from The English High School in Boston with a 4.5 grade-point average. He was on the student council and debate team, took Advanced Placement classes in history and chemistry, speaks four languages, worked a corporate internship and played three sports: soccer, basketball and track.
He did everything he thought was needed to become the first in his family to go to college: worked hard and proved that he was smart enough to make it.
[cms_ad:x100]“I went through all the hoops, the struggles, the obstacles,” Konate said. “College was my dream and my goal.”
But the aspiring engineer fell short on one other measure: having the money to pay.
His father didn’t make enough to save for tuition; if there was anything left after covering rent and food for Konate and his two younger sisters, his father used it to support their grandparents. And while Konate won a substantial scholarship from a foundation run by onetime Boston Red Sox player Adrian González and his wife, he still fell far short of what the private universities he’d dreamed of attending expected him to pay.
The best deal he could get was from a private engineering college that offered Konate little to no financial aid, despite his high school record and economic situation; he would still owe more than $30,000 a year, even after subtracting his González scholarship.
He couldn’t afford it
“I lost all hope,” Konate said. “My family does not have money like that.”
Instead, he enrolled in a less expensive public university. When students do this, studies show, it often leads to lower post-graduate salaries or a higher likelihood of dropping out, reinforcing a cycle of income inequality.
An increasing number of American families are finding themselves in the same situation, according to federal data analyzed by The Hechinger Report in collaboration with the Education Writers Association, or EWA.
For them, after years of escalating college costs and stagnant earnings, the higher educations they desire for their children are conclusively, decisively and categorically out of reach.
“We’ve become numb to the problem of college costs. But this can be a bit of a wakeup call for people,” said Julie Margetta Morgan, a fellow at the liberal think tank the Roosevelt Institute, which focuses on economic policy.
The message: “There’s a giant pool of hardworking students out there who are doing everything right from an academic perspective, the exact story you’d want to see in terms of dreaming big. And many of these students are priced out,” said Mark Huelsman, who studies education trends as a senior analyst at the left-leaning policy organization Dēmos. “It’s heartbreaking.”
[cms_ad:x101]It’s also simple math: The net prices charged by some private colleges and universities — the actual cost, after grants and discounts — are now significantly higher than some families’ entire annual incomes, the analysis, of U.S. Department of Education data, shows.
There’s some good news in the numbers: The average net price has stayed fairly flat for a decade now, at both public and private institutions, for families earning between $30,000 and $48,000. It’s even dropped slightly at private colleges and universities for families that make $48,000 or more, as those schools dole out more financial aid to fill seats in the sixth year of an enrollment decline.
But for families at the bottom of the income scale, earning $30,000 or less, the cost of college continues its relentless rise, with their average net price, after discounts and financial aid, reaching nearly $20,000 a year at private, and some public, universities and colleges.The figures are for 2015-16, the most recent year for which they are available.
And those are just the averages. Some private colleges charged a net price of as much as nearly $42,400 a year for families with annual incomes of $30,000 or less.
One school, the Southern California Institute of Architecture, charged a net price of nearly $50,000 for students from families earning $30,000 or less; another, the California Institute of the Arts, nearly $48,000.
The same institutions are equally pricey for middle-income families, costing up to more than $43,700 for those making $30,000 to $48,000 and nearly $50,000 for families that earn $48,000 to $75,000 a year, afterscholarships and grants.
The data are available in the updated Tuition Tracker, a tool produced by The Hechinger Report and EWA for students and their families considering college. The website discloses the net price based on a user’s family income, and other essential information, by institution.
“It is completely infeasible to think that families can dedicate even half to three quarters of their income to put their kid through college,” never mind their entire incomes or more, said Debbie Cochrane, vice president of The Institute for College Access and Success, which tracks the debt to which many students turn to fill the gap.
The highest-income families pay, on average, 15 percent of their earnings for college, according to earlier research by the Institute for Higher Education Policy, or IHEP, while low- and moderate-income families are expected to finance an amount equivalent to 100 percent of what they make in a year. By that calculation, half of 2,000 institutions analyzed by IHEP were affordable only to the wealthiest students — those with annual family incomes of $160,000 or more — and one-third only to students from families that made at least $100,000 a year.
A separate Dēmos study found that, even at public universities, students from families earning $30,000 and less in 22 states face net prices of more than $10,000 a year. The net price of college is the equivalent of a third of black families’ median annual income — and, in 26 states, more than half — and a quarter of Hispanic families’, compared to about a fifth of what white families earn. (The study was supported by the Lumina Foundation, which is also a funder of The Hechinger Report.)
Incomes likely to be lower
These students often choose cheaper community colleges and second-tier public institutions with far fewer resources to support them, and lower graduation rates. If they do succeed in finishing, their incomes are likely to be lower than if they had attended one of the elite universities or colleges they couldn’t afford.
“How affordable a college is doesn’t mean it’s the right choice for a student,” said Brendan Williams, director of knowledge at the nonprofit UAspire, which helps low-income and first-generation students navigate the route to college. “The cheapest option is not always the best option.”
This, in turn, perpetuates socioeconomic inequality, critics say; a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York report confirms the logical conclusion that students who go to less selective colleges and universities earn less than those who enroll at more selective ones.
The frustration for them is that the college they can afford is based as much on their own earnings after graduation — from which they’ll need to repay all the money they borrow — as their families’ incomes.
The maximum a first-year student can borrow with a federally subsidized loan is $5,500. That’s usually nowhere near enough to cover what many low-income students are left to pay for college, forcing them to resort to parent and private loans.
“We haven’t come up with quantitative cutoff about how much a student should borrow, because each individual student has to balance their own situation,” said Mamie Voight, vice president of policy research at IHEP. “They need to do that calculus themselves, about what they can reasonably expect to earn with a degree.”
In addition to diverting many lower-income undergraduates to poorly resourced schools, the price also forces more of them to balance work with college than their higher-income classmates, which a new study by the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University finds significantly lowers their grades and prolongs the time it takes them to finish; only 22 percent of low-income students who work graduate within even six years.
Konate, who turned to UAspire for help, ended up at the public University of New Hampshire, which offered him more generous financial aid — though he was responsible for costs besides tuition, worked while in school, and still ended up with $60,000 worth of federal and private loan debt by the time he graduated last year.
“If you’re in my shoes, you can’t do anything about it but just go look for somewhere that’s more feasible for you,” Konate said.
Now a structural engineer, he mentors younger students in the same straits. “They have their hearts set on a school, but they just can’t afford it,” he said. “It worked out for me in the end, but for a lot of other students, it doesn’t, and they leave. Your dream of college fades away.”
Myiesha Robateau followed in Konate’s footsteps, graduating in the spring from Boston English. She wasn’t offered enough financial aid to go to her first choice of college, either, and instead began this fall at the public University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
“It’s frustrating,” said Robateau, the first in her family to attend a four-year university. “Every student deserves to be able to go where they want.”
Kate Flock for The Hechinger Report
Myiesha Robateau wasn’t offered enough financial aid to go to a private college and instead began this fall at the public University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
The overall cost of net tuition, fees, room and board rose 69 percent at public universities between 1997-98 and last year, even after being adjusted for inflation, according to the College Board. That’s a period during which the Census Bureau reports that median household earnings fell.
“The price inches up each year while family incomes for the vast majority of Americans stagnate,” said Huelsman.
This is not a secret to families with college-aged kids. Sixty-nine percent say they had eliminated a college from consideration because of the price, according to a survey by the student loan provider Sallie Mae. A record 15 percent of first-year students told another national survey, by an institute at UCLA, that they had to forgo enrolling at their top choice of college because of the cost. That’s up 60 percent since 2004.
Disclosure required
Colleges are now required to disclose their net prices and provide net price calculators from which families are supposed to be able to determine the ultimate cost based on income. But the IHEP survey found another problem: The net price calculators at 80 percent of colleges were inaccurate or out of date.
There are some caveats to the data. They cover only up until the 2015-16 academic year, and do not include students who do not receive federal financial aid, because the government can’t track them. They also don’t take into account regional variations in the cost of living.
The bottom line is that the gates of some campuses are effectively closed to growing numbers of Americans, however, regardless of their academic talents.
“There is that whole idea where if you work really hard and get good grades and do all that stuff you’re going to be able to go to college and it will be affordable,” said Williams. “And that isn’t true any more.”
There’s a lot of talk about preparing high schoolers to be college- and career-ready. But simply getting graduates to enroll in college isn’t enough. If those students aren’t equipped to see their postsecondary journey through to completion, they’re saddled with debt and no clear pathway to career advancement.
This is a reality faced by far too many Minnesotans, and a new program seeks to reconnect them to schools in the state.
According to 2015 state data, only 23 percent of first-time, full-time undergraduates entering a state university graduated in four years. That number increased to 47 percent for the six-year graduation rate.
The graduation outcomes are better at both the University of Minnesota and private colleges. But for Minnesota’s two-year state colleges, the three-year grad rate was at 29 percent. And the three-year grad plus transfer rate was 49 percent.
Broken down by race, completion rates illustrate some stark disparities in the Minnesota higher education landscape. While 34 percent of white students graduated within three years at Minnesota state colleges in 2015, graduation rates were much lower for every other racial and ethnic group: 19 percent for Hispanic students, 18 percent for American Indian and Asian students, 16 percent for multi-racial students, and 9 percent for black students.
[cms_ad:x100]Looking to help more students who gave college a try but eventually called it quits before attaining any sort of certification, the Minnesota State system and the state Office of Higher Education have partnered to launch MN Reconnect.
“Through MN Reconnect, the State of Minnesota is making a critical investment in advancing our workforce. Adult learners in Minnesota now have an exciting new option to complete their education, and advance their career,” said Larry Pogemiller, Minnesota Office of Higher Education commissioner, in a press release announcing the new initiative last week.
Tapping into a critical population
Participants in the MN Reconnect program will work one-on-one with a personal adviser, assigned to help them navigate the re-enrollment process from start to finish. There are four of these “navigators” — one stationed at each pilot campus.
These positions are paid for by a $748,000 grant that Minnesota State and the state Office of Higher Education received from the Lumina Foundation, an Indianapolis-based foundation that funds higher-education initiatives nationwide. The two entities had recently participated in a workshop hosted by both Lumina and the State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) association, a Boulder-based national association of state higher-education government agencies, to talk about ways to better meet the needs of adult learners; they were subsequently invited to apply for funding to bring their shared vision to fruition.
This initial funding will support the new program at all four pilot campuses — selected because they’d already taken initiative to remove barriers for adult learners — throughout this year and into the following academic year. After that, Meredith Fergus, head of the MN Reconnect program with the state Office of Higher Education, says she and her colleagues in this work will look to lobby state officials for continued funding to sustain and expand the program.
“We wanted to work with colleges who had kind of started down that path that we could leverage — so they could teach us what they already knew and we could provide them with some funding that would allow them to get to the next step,” she said. “But our goal is, really, to get all colleges in Minnesota on this pathway towards serving adult learners better, especially former students. But we’re just having to start small because of the limited funding.”
Listing some of the common barriers that these four campuses have been making more of a concerted effort to address, Fergus pointed to evening financial aid office hours, on-campus child care, transportation assistance, a simple process for acquiring credit for prior learning, and the opportunity to enroll in a year’s worth of coursework at the start of the year, so working students can better plan for child care and transportation.
She talks about how MN Reconnect has the potential to help meet both the needs of adult learners and the state’s employment needs. But she’s also focused on using this program as a way to meet the state’s educational achievement goal. In 2015, the state Legislature enacted a goal that 70 percent of Minnesotans ages 25 to 44 should have a postsecondary credential by 2025.
To get there, the state is paying greater attention to the approximately 115,000-140,000 Minnesotans in that age bracket who dropped out of college — who have some credits but no degree, no certificate, Fergus said.
[cms_ad:x101]“We saw that as a primary population that we could tap into, to get them to come back to college, finish their program — whether it’s the one they first started, or it’s the one most applicable to their job now — and actually have a quick win on making progress towards our educational achievement goal,” she said. “Furthermore, we know that students of color are actually more likely to drop out of college than white students, and low-income students are more likely to drop out than upper-income students. So by focusing on dropouts, we can also target individuals of color, as well as low-income students, to help get them back in and get that certificate or degree, which will help them, in terms of economic outcome.”
To recruit participants for the MN Reconnect program, the state Office of Higher Education is helping all four pilot campuses market the program. Program staff are targeting adults between the ages of 25 and 44 who have been out of college for at least two years, had earned at least 15 credits, and are interested in re-enrolling to earn a certificate, diploma or associate degree through one of the four participating colleges.
Adults with prior credit but no certification who don’t fall within these parameters are still encouraged to apply and participate, Fergus says. That includes those who may have studied at a college outside of Minnesota, or outside of the Minnesota State system. It’s just that these folks won’t be receiving the direct invitations to apply that dropouts from the four participating campuses have already begun receiving.
Removing barriers
As the first to fill its new MN Reconnect navigator position, Inver Hills Community College was able to enroll its initial cohort of participants at the start of the fall semester. The campus currently has about 70 students enrolled, with more lined up to enroll in the spring semester. It’s a strong start toward hitting the 125 students-per-campus goal minimum set by the state Office of Higher Education.
Heidi Thury, the college’s on-site navigator, has been working on campus for the last seven years and is familiar with the college’s prior-existing adult learner initiatives. While she’ll spend the bulk of her time doing one-on-one advising with program participants, she’ll also be looking to enhance programs that support adult learners and address policies that continue to act as barriers for this particular student population.
For instance, she says Inver Hills Community College already has a pretty well established prior learning assessment program and College-Level Examination Program, both of which allow students an expedited pathway to earning credit for skills they have acquired in the workforce for a fraction of the cost of a regular college course. Other expedited pathways to credit — that are also less expansive and more flexible — exist as well to support adult learners on campus.
But she’d like to see more departments get involved in collaborating with the new director of prior learning assessment, to expand offerings. Likewise, she’s advocating for an expansion of evening course offerings, since many of the adult learners she’s advising are working full-time jobs.
Additionally, she’s advocating for a policy change to a process that she thinks serves as an unnecessary deterrent for many adult learners interested in re-enrolling to complete their studies: the cumbersome appeals process for prior academic suspension, which is tied to financial aid suspension.
“We forget that those feelings that come up can really create a sense of anxiety and a feeling that maybe I really don’t belong again,” she said. “In most likelihood, they will get approved. So it’s this little hoop they have to jump through. And I think it’d help their mindset if they could come in without having to think so much about it.”
Jon Quinn
For Jon Quinn, having Thury as a resource has been a game-changer. He’d initially started out studying information technology at Colorado State University as a recent high school graduate, but chose not to complete his studies once he was offered a position in the restaurant industry that would allow him to make more money than he figured he’d be able to make in his field of study at that time. Then he started a family and had two kids.
He’d long toyed with the idea of going back to complete his college studies, he says. But the undertaking felt daunting. Seeing his own kids off to college, he felt the timing was finally right to take action.
“They motivated me to continue my education. And, of course, I’d like to increase my earning potential. I want to make more money and work with my head instead of my body,” he said. “But as an adult learner, I wasn’t quite sure how I was going to be able to put education into my work life and still be able to be successful at both.”
Once he connected with Thury, he was able to map out a pathway that actually expanded upon his initial ambitions. At Inver Hills Community College, he’ll build upon the prior credits he’d earned to earn an associate of arts and earn some professional certificates that’ll allow him to get some professional experience in the IT and computer science sector. He’ll be able to do all this while continuing to work full time by taking advantage of online and evening classes, when possible.
From there, he now plans to go for a bachelor’s degree as well, by continuing his studies at Concordia College. “It feels good to see everything on paper and be like, ‘Well, by 2020, I’m gonna be starting my bachelor’s degree,’ ” he said, adding he plans to complete that final step within 18 months.
Part of a national trend
In many aspects, Minnesota is still catching up to other states when it comes to helping adults with some college credit but no certification to complete their studies.
Andy Carlson, vice president of finance policy and member services for SHEEO, has been working closely with Minnesota on its newly launched MN Reconnect program. But he also works with other states who are making advances in this work. From his perspective, there’s been a notable shift over the last three or four years in terms of who’s interested in thinking about adult education pathways differently. With most states having adopted postsecondary educational attainment goals, it’s no longer just higher-ed insiders who are focused on this, he says, but policymakers as well.
“The high school pipeline is not growing the way it used to,” he said. “So the adult student is really critical if states want to hit those goals. And those goals tend to be tied to workforce and economic needs, so they’re pretty darn important for a state.”
Some state programs are set up to funnel adult learners into high-needs workforce areas, while others are open to all areas of study. Some programs operate statewide, while others are more limited in scope. Some are confined to community and technical college, while other have brought four-year universities into the fold. Some offer students reduced, or even free, tuition.
In Indiana, the state offers two programs geared toward breaking down barriers for adult learners. The “You Can. Go Back.” program was designed to help adult learners who had dropped out of college come back to finish their degree. This initiative supports students with a state grant, recently increased to $2,000. Additionally, state policies have been adjusted to allow for more leniency for those who have been out of school for more than two years and re-enroll under this adult program: Their prior grades are discounted.
Building on this program, the state recently launched Next Level Jobs. This program provides adult residents with an opportunity to earn a free high-demand certificate, to advance in their work sector.
“We can drive people to different places on the website in a clear and simple way,” said Teresa Lubbers, the state’s commissioner for higher education. “What we know is if it’s too complicated, you lose people at the very beginning.”
MinnPost photo by Erin Hinrichs
Heidi Thury, Inver Hills’ on-site navigator, has been working on campus for the last seven years and is familiar with the college’s prior-existing adult learner initiatives.
They’ve tracked more than 300,000 unique hits on their website, she says. At least 30,000 have provided information on the website that her office has then passed on to community colleges. Over 10,000 have enrolled in the workforce-ready grant program in just a little over a year.
In her experience, it’s also important for states to be “pretty aggressive about using prior learning assessments” to award credit in a more affordable, expedited way for adult learners.
“I think it’s important to value the knowledge that people have gained in nontraditional educational ways,” she said.
In Mississippi, the Complete 2 Compete program launched in Aug. 2017 and is already showing some promising levels of engagement and impact. Right now the program has 13,000 applicants, says Stephanie Bullock, the program’s project coordinator with the Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning. To date, they’ve awarded 701 degrees to participants — many of whom didn’t actually need to invest in additional coursework to get a degree. And 860 students are currently enrolled.
Highlighting some of the elements that make this state initiative unique, Bullock points to their use of program coaches stationed at each of the 24 participating campuses, a pillar similar to the one MN Reconnect is being built around. In total, she oversees 50 of these advisers — a number that’s grown in tandem with the increase in demand.
She also points to a grade-forgiveness policy that allows students enrolling in the Complete 2 Compete program a fresh start, in terms of not having past grades calculated into their new GPA.
Additionally, the creation of a university studies degree program — specifically designed for program participants looking to attain a bachelor’s degree to advance at work, or to apply for a job that requires a degree without specialization — offers adult learners more flexible option for going back to school. Under this pathway, they can apply up to 30 hours of technical credits toward a bachelor’s degree — a significant change in the way most state public universities had dealt with technical credits.
Finally, Bullock says the program offers students access to grant funding — provided by the W.K. Kellogg Foundation — that they can access in $500 increments, each semester, to pay off past college debt at other Mississippi institutions that may have been preventing them from re-enrolling.
All five of the states that Carlson is currently working with through this round of Lumina grants — Minnesota, Washington, Maine, Indiana and Oklahoma — are all doing things that are “very, very different,” he says. But he believes they’re all committed to figuring out what an adult learner needs in order to succeed.
“The reality is, someone who attempted college and didn’t succeed comes with a lot of legitimate baggage from that experience, potentially,” he said. “So the worst thing a state can do is re-engage students — get them to come back and invest their resources and time — and then not succeed a second time.”
Negative attack ads are bombarding Minnesota politics. Many are of questionable accuracy. Should candidates or groups say whatever they want about an opponent, issue, or themselves and have it protected as a form of free speech? While the Supreme Court has ruled that these ads are protected by the First Amendment, a good argument can be made that there is no constitutional right to lie.
David Schultz
First, why so many negative attack ads in Minnesota? The simple answer is that they are effective. Minnesota elections have become competitive, and close elections often produce negative ads. These ads are able to mobilize voters, both partisan and swing, to vote against candidates, or they persuade some not to vote. In either case, these ads will continue to be used so long as voters respond to them.
But such ads, especially if untruthful, should not be given constitutional protection. Lying is wrong; even children know it. Prohibitions against lying are often legally enforced. Perjury is wrong and punishable by law. False advertising is regulated as deceptive. Lies distort the search for truth and the marketplace of ideas. In law, the adversarial system is supposed to discover the truth, but that does not mean that witnesses can lie. Courts rely on all parties playing fairly and not lying. Lies make it difficult for juries to do their job. False commercial advertising makes it difficult for consumers to make informed choices, thereby providing the classic justification for their regulation.
Personal integrity is not always enough
Ethically there should be no debate that lying is wrong in politics. One should hope as a matter of personal virtue and integrity that this would be the case. But personal integrity is not always enough. American politics is littered with records of lies and deceptions, be it Bill Clinton’s false assertions about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth distorting John Kerry’s Vietnam record, or statements by President Donald Trump that many fact checkers find to be of questionable accuracy. Something more is needed to encourage personal integrity in politics.
[cms_ad:x100]This brings us to the question: Is there a First Amendment right to lie? The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2011 effectively said yes in the case known as 281 Care Committee v. Arneson. The court was concerned with how such a law would chill free speech. Was the court right? There are many reasons to question its analysis.
First, the U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled that deception lies outside of First Amendment protection. In its 1995 McIntyre v. Ohio Elections Commission decision, it ruled that Ohio had a legitimate interest in preventing fraud and libel in campaigns where false statements might have “serious adverse consequences.” Promoting the integrity of the electoral process was a legitimate reason to prohibit deception.
Second, lies occur, and one cannot always rely upon the marketplace of ideas to ensure that the public will be able to sort out fact from fiction. Over a quarter of the population still believes that former President Barack Obama is not a U.S. citizen, we never landed a person on the moon, or that George Bush and the CIA planned the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Many voters rely on people telling the truth
Michael Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter point out in “What Americans Don’t Know About Politics and Why It Matters” that many voters are uninformed about politics. They rely upon political actors to tell them the truth so that they can make informed decisions. Lying prevents that. Laws prohibiting political falsehoods define outer limits on deception.
Without any limits, there are no real sanctions against lying. Some might argue that electoral defeat is the sanction, but in many cases the political process cannot be counted on to smoke out lies and punish. Moreover, once lies have been circulated, especially in a social media era, they are hard to correct, and evidence suggests deception travels more quickly and deeper than the truth.
Prohibiting lying actually enhances robust debate and democracy. Much in the same way that prosecuting perjury strengthens the adversarial process, drawing limits on deception in politics does the same. Similarly, policing deceptive commercial ads yields better consumer choices and operation of the market place.
One more reason for cynicism
Surveys indicate that a majority of Americans think quite a few politicians are crooks, and barely a quarter of the population trust the government. There are many reasons why voters have become increasingly more cynical about politics and why they distrust politicians. Perhaps public perception of increased lying in the political process is a factor.
Making it clear that the First Amendment does not protect political lies is one way to strengthen democracy and encourage better political behavior.
If you’re interested in joining the discussion, add your voice to the Comment section below — or consider writing a letter or a longer-form Community Voices commentary. (For more information about Community Voices, see our Submission Guidelines.)
Fertility rates have fallen significantly in the United States over the past 10 years, with the biggest declines occurring in large metropolitan areas, according to a data brief released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The average age of first-time mothers has increased during that period as well, and the rise has been greatest in large metro areas, the CDC report also shows.
The report doesn’t discuss why American women are having fewer babies and at older ages, but other research has pointed to several possible factors. These include women declining or delaying marriage, often to finish their education and establish their careers.
A recent New York Times survey of a nationally representative group adults aged 20 to 45 found that the top reasons for why people aren’t having as many children as previous generations have to do with wanting more leisure time and personal freedom, not having found a partner yet, and — leading the list — not being able to afford child-care costs.
[cms_ad:x100]In fact, four out of the five top reasons cited in the survey for having fewer children had to do with financial worries.
Across all areas
The total fertility rate — the estimated number of births expected from a group of 1,000 women during their lifetime — reached its most recent peak in the U.S. in 2007, the CDC report points out.
The rate has been dropping ever since — and in all areas of the country.
CDC
Total fertility rate, by urbanization level: United States, 2007–2017
During 2007 and 2017, the total fertility rate fell 12 percent in rural areas (to 1,950 per 1,000 women), 16 percent in small or medium metro areas (to 1,778 per 1,000 women), and 18 percent in large metro areas (to 1,712 per 1,000 women).
The CDC data also shows that as the decade progressed, the difference between the fertility rates of rural and metro areas widened.
In 2007, the total fertility rate for rural areas was 5 percent higher than that of both small/medium and large metro areas. By 2017, that gap had widened to 10 percent with small/medium metro areas and to 14 percent with large metro areas.
“The differences in total fertility rates between rural and metro areas are consistent with previous research describing differences in childbearing behaviors and a higher average number of children in rural areas compared with metro areas,” the CDC researchers write.
The decline in total fertility rates occurred among all races, but the largest drops occurred among Hispanic women. Their rates decreased 26 percent in rural areas, 29 percent in small/medium metro areas and 30 percent in large metro areas.
Older new moms
The average age at which women are having their first child has also increased in all areas of the country during the past decade. New moms in rural areas, however, still tend to be younger (by an average of about three years) then their counterparts in metro areas.
CDC
Mean age at first birth, by urbanization level: United States, 2007–2017
First-time mothers in rural counties were, on average, 23.2 years old in 2007 and 24.5 years old in 2017 — an increase of 1.3 years, according to the CDC report. By comparison, the average age of new moms in small/medium metro areas rose 1.5 years, from 24.3 years to 25.8 years. And in large metro areas, the increase was 1.8 years, from 25.9 years to 27.7 years.
That trend — having a first baby at a later age — occurred across all races. Black women experienced the greatest increase in average age for a first birth, however, with rises of 1.7 years in rural areas, 1.9 years in small/medium metro areas, and 2.4 years in large metro areas.
If you’re turning 50, you might as well do it in style. Throw a party. Have a classy jazz duo – Benny Weinbeck on piano, Gordy Johnson on bass – greet people as they come through your door. Serve prime rib and ice-cream drinks. Enjoy the fact that Gov. Mark Dayton has proclaimed this your day. Entertain a crowd of 560 with a spectacle of a musical, with famous songs and fabulous dancing, a strong cast and gorgeous costumes. Then continue with a birthday bash in the Club Theatre.
That’s what Chanhassen Dinner Theatres (CDT) did, and they did it impeccably well. Opening night of “Irving Berlin’s Holiday Inn” was a night to remember, with nonstop hospitality in the house and fireworks on the stage.
But before getting into “Holiday Inn,” some background.
Founded by Herbert and Carolyn Bloomberg, built in a Carver County cornfield – and “still here against all odds,” said infomercial queen Nancy Nelson during the opening remarks – CDT opened on Oct. 11, 1968, with “How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying.” Growing into a 90,000-square-foot complex with multiple stages, it has staged 237 homegrown productions and entertained more than 12.5 million people.
[cms_ad:x100]It’s one of a half-dozen professional dinner theaters still standing, with table service from the start, and the largest privately owned single-unit restaurant in Minnesota. It’s also the state’s largest employer of musical theater professionals. All productions are designed and created on site by Minnesota artists, designers, actors and musicians. Many actors who have trod Chanhassen’s boards have gone on to Broadway, TV and films: Amy Adams, Laura Osnes, TR Knight, Linda Kelsey, Loni Anderson, Pat Proft, Ron Perlman.
No longer in a cornfield – the city of Chanhassen, which just observed its own 50th anniversary, has grown up around it, and Paisley Park is down the road – CDT is someplace to check out if you haven’t yet been there. It’s a one-of-a-kind experience. And the current production, “Holiday Inn,” is a musical, muscular display of its strengths.
This is a regional premiere of the show that opened on Broadway in 2016. Inspired by the 1942 Oscar-winning film starring Fred Astaire and Bing Crosby, it’s full of great songs including “White Christmas,” “Happy Holiday,” “Blue Skies,” “Easter Parade,” “Cheek to Cheek” and “Steppin’ Out with My Baby.” The large cast is led by Michael Gruber, Ann Michels, Tony Vierling, Jessica Fredrickson and Michelle Barber.
The story is thin – mainly a frame on which to hang all the singing, dancing, costumes and scenes. After years on Broadway, Jim (Gruber) has decided to leave the bright lights behind for a peaceful life in Connecticut. His stage partners Ted (Vierling) and Lila (Fredrickson) aren’t happy about that, especially Lila, who’s Jim’s fiancée for a minute, until Ted woos her away with promises of Hollywood stardom.
Jim soon finds Connecticut too sleepy for his tastes. He meets Linda (Ann Michels), a schoolteacher who happens to be a talented singer and dancer, and Louise (Barber), a mouthy farmhand. Together they turn the farmhouse (Linda’s former home) into an inn. It will only be open on holidays from Thanksgiving to the Fourth of July – including Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Easter – and it will stage performances featuring Jim’s Broadway friends.
Jim and Linda fall in love. Then Ted shows up, wooing Linda with promises of Hollywood stardom. Oh, and here comes Lila. Will Jim lose the girl again? What do you think?
The story barely matters. What counts are the nonstop singing and dancing, both splendid. The leads are backed by a large ensemble cast that fills the stage with twirling, tapping, and smiles. Gowns sparkle and whirl. And there really are fireworks. In “Let’s Say It With Firecrackers,” Vierling mimes throwing flash bangs onto the stage while dancing up a storm. What masterful timing all around: from Vierling, the band and whoever flips the switch to make the lights in the stage burst into brightness.
Michael Brindisi directs. He’s only the second artistic director in CDT’s long history, after Gary Gisselman; this is Brindisi’s 30th year with the theater. Choreographer Tamara Kangas Erickson guided dozens of feet in many thousands of steps. Andy Kust leads the band; Nayna Ramey did the scenic design, which morphs seamlessly from New York to a country farmhouse with a barn that figures prominently toward the end, and a Hollywood set (an especially hilarious scene). Rich Hamson came up with the beautiful costumes. The show lasts two hours, plus there’s a 30-minute intermission, enough time for a coffin-sized slab of the Chanhassen’s chocolate cake.
Though “Holiday Inn” is perhaps best known for loosing “White Christmas” on the world, it’s not specifically a Christmas show. You can see it anytime from now through Feb. 23, 2019. There are eight shows every week. Former Star Tribune theater critic Graydon Royce plans to be in every one. A member of the ensemble cast, he plays a radio announcer, and he sings. He’s pretty good, too.
FMI and tickets ($76-91 dinner and show; special student and senior pricing); 952-934-1525. Show-only tickets are available 10 days before a performance date.
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The picks
Now at the History Theatre: The Great Society. Robert Schenkkan has written two plays about LBJ: the Tony-winning “All the Way,” seen at the History Theatre this time last year, and a sequel, “The Great Society.” The original cast returns, with Pearce Bunting as LBJ, Shawn Hamilton as the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and Andrew Erskine Wheeler as Hubert H. Humphrey. Spanning the years 1965–68, the play schools us on our history and depicts LBJ’s fall from grace as his accomplishments – including historic legislation on health care, education and poverty – are overshadowed by Vietnam. FMI and tickets ($37-56; less for seniors, students and under 30s). Ends Oct. 28.
Photo by Scott Pakudaitis
Pearce Bunting as Lyndon Johnson and Shawn Hamilton as Martin Luther King Jr. in a scene from "The Great Society."
Tonight (Thursday, Oct. 18) through Saturday at the Cowles: Twin Cities Tap Festival. This annual event brings together local tap dancers of all ages with national artists for a weekend of classes, events and performances accompanied by live musicians. Performers include Dianne “Lady Di” Walker, Brenda Bufalino, Sam Weber, Kaleena Miller Dance and Kean Sense of Rhythm Youth Tap Ensemble. 7:30 p.m. all nights. FMI and tickets ($15-30).
Courtesy of the Minnesota Orchestra
Peter Bernstein will perform at 8 p.m. in the Target Atrium at Orchestra Hall on Friday.
Friday at Orchestra Hall: Jazz in the Target Atrium: Peter Bernstein. An intimate evening of solo guitar from the eloquent Bernstein, who has played with Lou Donaldson, Jimmy Cobb, Joshua Redman, Diana Krall and many more. 8 p.m. FMI and tickets ($32).
Saturday at Hamline: Minnesota Prison Writing Workshop 7th Annual Reading: “Beyond Bars: Voices of Incarceration.” Family members, friends, and MPWW instructors and mentors will read poetry, fiction and creative nonfiction by writers incarcerated in state correctional facilities. Released MPWW alumni will read their own work. In the Klas Center, Kay Fredericks Room. 7 p.m. Free. Here’s a campus map.
Saturday and Sunday at MacPhail’s Antonello Hall: Minnesota Bach Ensemble: “Rustic and Refined.” The Bach Ensemble will open its 7th season with an old favorite, rarely heard works and special guests. Bach’s “Brandenburg” Concerto No. 2 will feature the SPCO’s Lynn Erickson as trumpet soloist. The program will also include music by Fasch, Biber, Conti and Czech Baroque composer Zelenka. Artistic Director Andrew Altenbach will conduct. With Minnesota Orchestra flutist Adam Kuenzel and soprano Linh Kauffman. 3 p.m. both days. FMI and tickets ($30/$10 students).
Monday at the Chanhassen: JazzMN Orchestra: “Sinatra & Basie: Live at the Sands.” Swinging, sophisticated multi-platinum recording artist Curtis Stigers will perform with Minnesota’s premier big band as it approaches its 20th anniversary under Artistic Director Doug Snapp. Note the new location: not the Hopkins High auditorium, but Chanhassen’s main stage. This is a dinner show. FMI and tickets ($30-50). Coming up: “Jingle Bell Jazz” on Dec. 17 and JazzMN’s 20th Anniversary Celebration concert on April 8.
Four years after losing control of the state House of Representatives and two years after losing control of the state Senate, Minnesota DFLers are hoping for a change of fortune Nov. 6.
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While recapturing the Senate requires a victory in just one district, there is only one race on the ballot this year. And that one — District 13, centered on Stearns County — has been reliably Republican. That doesn’t mean the DFL isn’t making a run at the winner-take-all race and that Republicans are taking a win for granted. Breaking the current 33-33 tie created by Michelle Fischbach’s resignation to become lieutenant governor will be, by far, the most expensive legislative race in the state in 2018.
The House, however, is very much in play. That 73-61 majority the GOP won in 2014 grew to 77-57 after 2016. That means the DFL has to pick up 11 seats to take the speakership away from Rep. Kurt Daudt and likely award it to House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman. But to have a chance at gaining 11 seats, the DFL needs to be playing hard in twice that many, people who are making spending decisions said. That not only provides a margin for error, but sets the stage for a bigger majority if the rumored Blue Wave materializes.
Republicans, in turn, can’t spend the fall just playing defense — that is, protecting their incumbents and defending open seats that Republican retirements left open. They are determined, therefore, to go after a handful of DFL seats, especially those in Greater Minnesota where they have made significant gains over the last three election cycles.
Just as Republicans began their two-election march to their current majority by looking at DFL districts that had been won by Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012, DFLers are starting with what might be dubbed the Hillary 12. These mostly suburban Twin Cities districts were carried by Hillary Clinton by percentages ranging from 27.3 percent (49A) to 0.5 percent (33B) but elected or re-elected Republicans to the House. These battleground districts — sometimes referred to as rented districts or “borrowed ground.” That they are mostly in the suburbs adds to the DFL’s hopes because those are districts where approval of President Trump has grown weaker, especially among women.
Republicans are hoping that, if it becomes a big Democrat year nationally and in Minnesota, voters will split tickets. And some of their incumbents among the Hillary 12 — Rep. Jenifer Loon of Eden Prairie and Rep. Sarah Anderson of Plymouth, for example — have run and won several times, including in years that favored the DFL. Anderson won in the disastrous-for-Republicans 2006 and Loon won in the not-much-better 2008.
If there is a list labeled “The Hillary 12,” there is a corresponding list titled “The Donald 7” for the DFL incumbents in districts carried by Trump in 2016. First among those is Rep. Paul Marquart’s District 4B in northwest Minnesota where he won by nearly 8 percentage points while Trump was winning by 21.6 percent. Another Trump 7 district is 19A where the DFLer who kept control despite a 4 percent Trump margin — Rep. Clark Johnson of North Mankato — is stepping down after three terms.
Such open seats are targets for both parties, especially in the Twin Cities metro area. One of note is 36A where Republican Mark Uglem of Champlin isn’t running for re-election. Another is 38B where Republican Matt Dean of Dellwood is stepping down. Those two districts were Trump plus-0.7 percent and Trump plus 1.2 percent respectively. On the DFL side, Rep. Erin Maye Quade’s decision to join Erin Murphy’s unsuccessful gubernatorial ticket has left her District 57A vulnerable to a GOP pickup, despite its 2016 margin of Clinton-plus 6.2 percent.
An unexpected pickup for the DFL could come in 14B where Republican Jim Knoblach of St. Cloud suspended his campaign after allegations of sexual abuse were made public by his daughter. The DFL already had hopes that onetime state Senate candidate Dan Wolgamott could threaten Knoblach who had only won by 3 percentage points in 2016.
Many of the suburban Twin Cities districts cover the same real estate as two contested Congressional races where GOP incumbents are fighting for survival against aggressive and well-funded Democratic challenges. How will the campaigns of Angie Craig against Jason Lewis and Dean Phillips against Erik Paulsen drive turnout and will that help DFL candidates for the state House?
This group of Races to Watch does not pretend to be an exhaustive list. Instead it looks at past voting records and current campaign spending trends — combined with conversations with campaign leaders — to come up with the races that are both being watched and could speak to broader trends in the 2018 election.
And yes, a partisan tie is possible, something that last happened in 1978 when the DFL blew a 64-seat majority to enter the 1979 session tied 67-67. It is still known as the Minnesota Massacre.
All 16 races to watch are displayed below. To more easily compare, contrast and explore the races, click the "Show only" links to toggle the various filters on and off.
The fate of Senate control hinges on this special election for Republican Michelle Fischbach’s former seat, which she resigned earlier this year after being elevated to Lieutenant Governor. The DFL made a serious effort to flip the seat, funneling money into Stearns County Commissioner Joe Perske’s effort to beat Republican state Rep. Jeff Howe for the spot. But the district’s history is comforting for the GOP — Fischbach won her 2016 election by more than 37 points.
State Senator District 4, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Kent Eken (DFL)
59.04%
James Leiman (R)
40.81%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
48.46%
Trump (R)
41.27%
State House District 4B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Paul Marquart (DFL) (First elected: 2000)
Challengers:
Jason Peterson (R)
Rep. Paul Marquart, a moderate DFLer from Dilworth, could be vulnerable in this seat despite winning his 2016 election by nearly eight points and holding the office since 2000. Donald Trump won big in Marquart’s district, which has leaned GOP for a while. Mitt Romney even won the district, which surrounds Moorhead, by a slim margin. In fact, the GOP has taken all 11 districts that Romney won and that elected DFLers in 2012 … except 4B. One thing Marquart could benefit from: His opponent, Jason Peterson, doesn’t have a wealth of political experience. The 21-year-old Lake Park Republican is still studying at Minnesota State University Moorhead and expects to graduate in December with a degree in political science.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$8,338.00
Spent to help Republicans
$0.00
29th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Paul Marquart (DFL)
53.85%
Ben Grimsley (R)
46.09%
State Senator District 4, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 5, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Justin Eichorn (R)
51.25%
Tom Saxhaug (DFL)
48.59%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
51.35%
Clinton (D)
39.2%
State House District 5B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Sandy Layman (R) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Pat Medure (DFL)
On paper, GOP Rep. Sandy Layman of Cohasset is in good position to return to St. Paul this winter. In 2016, Donald Trump safely carried her district and Layman was elected by a comfortable 11.6-point margin as the Iron Range region shifted toward Republicans. But the DFL has thrown some some cash behind Pat Medure, a Grand Rapids School Board member and former Itasca County Sheriff with deep roots in the district. Conservative groups have been forced to spend to defend Layman in the once DFL-friendly area, which was previously represented by DFLer Tom Anzelc for a decade.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$22,005.64
Spent to help Republicans
$29,747.77
11th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Sandy Layman (R)
53.61%
Tom Anzelc (DFL)
42.01%
Dennis Barsness (GP)
4.28%
State Senator District 5, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 18, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Scott Newman (R)
67.77%
Amy Wilde (DFL)
32.13%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
66.62%
Clinton (D)
25.08%
State House District 19A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Kim Spears (R)
Jeff Brand (DFL)
Republicans are targeting this seat in the Mankato area since Trump won the district in 2016 and incumbent Democrat Clark Johnson of North Mankato is retiring. Trump didn’t win big — he topped Clinton by about four points — and Johnson won his seat in 2016 by close to six points. But Republican candidate Kim Spears is bullish on his name recognition and district connections after losing fairly close races to Johnson in the prior two elections. Jeff Brand, the DFLer in the race, is a city councilman in St. Peter.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$0.00
Spent to help Republicans
$18,337.66
23rd highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Clark Johnson (DFL)
52.68%
Kim Spears (R)
47.23%
State Senator District 19, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 35, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Jim Abeler (R)
68.01%
Roger Johnson (DFL)
31.87%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
55.11%
Clinton (D)
36.13%
State House District 36A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Bill Maresh (R)
Zack Stephenson (DFL)
Republican Rep. Mark Uglem’s retirement has made this suburban district that covers Champlin and parts of Coon Rapids a target for Democrats. They’ve recruited Zack Stephenson, who’s a prosecutor in the Hennepin County attorney’s office and former campaign manager of House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman. But Republican Bill Maresh, a teacher at Champlin Park High School, has the district’s voting history on his side: Uglem won by landslides in 2014 and 2016, when Trump won the area’s majority vote, too.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$677.32
Spent to help Republicans
$21,691.43
19th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Mark W. Uglem (R)
58.21%
Kevin Parker (DFL)
41.56%
State Senator District 36, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 36, 2016: Results from this House district only.
John Hoffman (DFL)
51.98%
Jeffrey Lunde (R)
47.76%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
51.72%
Trump (R)
39.73%
State House District 37A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Erin Koegel (DFL) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Anthony Wilder (R)
DFL Rep. Erin Koegel is trying to keep her seat, to which voters first elected her with a plurality and by less than 3 percentage points in 2016. This year sees a rematch against Republican Anthony Wilder. Democrats have held the House district in the northern suburbs for the past decade with Koegel and her three-term predecessor, Sen. Jerry Newton. But here’s the kicker: Trump took the district’s vote — by less than one percentage point — in 2016. And Koegel might have benefited from the presence of a Libertarian candidate who won more than 8 percent of the vote. Groups such as the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses are trying to keep that red momentum going — pushing the House race to the very top for outside spending so far. Outside politics, Wilder helps run his family’s gun range in Blaine and is a realtor. Koegel works at a chapter of the Community Action Partnership, which helps low-income people with social services, based in St. Paul.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$0.00
Spent to help Republicans
$95,341.06
1st highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Erin Koegel (DFL)
47.17%
Anthony Wilder (R)
44.49%
Brian Mccormick (LIB)
8.19%
State Senator District 37, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 38, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Roger Chamberlain (R)
59.95%
Pat Davern (DFL)
39.95%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
50.66%
Clinton (D)
40.01%
State House District 38B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Patti Anderson (R)
Ami Wazlawik (DFL)
Seven-term Republican Rep. Matt Dean isn’t seeking re-election this year, leaving the district representing the White Bear Lake area wide open. DFLer Ami Wazlawik, who has activism and nonprofit experience, thinks she has what it takes this year to sway the area’s voters — even after running unsuccessfully against Dean in 2016, a year the area’s voters also went for Trump. Republican Patti Anderson, a former mayor of Eagan and state auditor, has some business-oriented PACs on her side. They’ve dished out at least $86,000 on mailers and cable ads against Wazlawik so far, catapulting the race near the top for outside spending.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$0.00
Spent to help Republicans
$70,549.25
6th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Matt Dean (R)
56.94%
Ami Wazlawik (DFL)
42.95%
State Senator District 38, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 41, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Carolyn Laine (DFL)
64.04%
Gary Johnson (R)
35.73%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
61.46%
Trump (R)
28.81%
State House District 42A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Randy Jessup (R) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Kelly Moller (DFL)
Republican Rep. Randy Jessup managed to squeeze out a victory over a Democratic incumbent in 2016, even though voters of the Shoreview area went for Clinton over Trump by more than 14 percentage points. This year, Republican groups are spending heavily to try and help the freshman legislator keep his seat. Jessup’s opponent is DFLer Kelly Moller, a prosecutor in the Hennepin County attorney’s office who previously worked in the Minnesota Attorney General’s Office.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$15,864.98
Spent to help Republicans
$26,091.50
16th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Randy Jessup (R)
50.18%
Barb Yarusso (DFL)
49.64%
State Senator District 42, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 43, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Chuck Wiger (DFL)
58.4%
Bob Zick (R)
33.86%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
51.85%
Trump (R)
38.98%
State House District 44A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Sarah Anderson (R) (First elected: 2006)
Challengers:
Ginny Klevorn (DFL)
Politicos say suburban women will be the linchpin in November’s elections. But will their supposed dissatisfaction with the president trickle down the ballot? If so, what does that mean for suburban women who happen to be incumbent Republican legislators? Sarah Anderson has held this Plymouth seat since 2006, through some DFL wave elections, and Republican groups are spending a chunk of change in the hopes she’ll hold on to the seat (DFL groups are spending in the district, too). In 2016, Anderson beat Ginny Klevorn, a business owner and mediator who she faces again this year, by 8 points. But the district also went for Hillary Clinton by 14 points that night. Similar dynamics are in play in Jenifer Loon’s Eden Prairie 48B seat.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$16,884.46
Spent to help Republicans
$43,658.05
7th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Sarah Anderson (R)
54.04%
Ginny Klevorn (DFL)
45.82%
State Senator District 44, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 47, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Scott Jensen (R)
71.87%
Darryl Scarborough (DFL)
28.04%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
60.42%
Clinton (D)
31.04%
State House District 47B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Donzel Leggett (DFL)
Greg Boe (R)
That Republicans are spending in a district that incumbent Republican Joe Hoppe won by 25 points and Trump won by 3 in 2016 might come as a surprise. But Hoppe’s not running this year, leaving this seat open. This time, it’s a race between Greg Boe, a Chaska City Council member running as a Republican, and DFLer Donzel Leggett, who’s a vice president at General Mills. Given this district’s history — Hoppe was first elected in 2002 — a DFL win in this western suburban/exurban district would likely be a sign of a pretty big DFL wave.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$0.00
Spent to help Republicans
$28,041.42
17th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Joe Hoppe (R)
62.47%
Jane Montemayor (DFL)
37.46%
State Senator District 47, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 48, 2016: Results from this House district only.
David Hann (R)
50.2%
Steve Cwodzinski (DFL)
49.7%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
52.31%
Trump (R)
38.96%
State House District 49A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Dario Anselmo (R) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Heather Edelson (DFL)
The night Dario Anslemo was elected to the Minnesota House in 2016 was the night he also became a member of an endangered species: Republican reps from the inner-ring suburbs. While much of the state trended redder that night, the ‘burbs went bluer. Anselmo, a businessman, won the district by 2 points in 2016. The district voted for Clinton by 27 points — the biggest margin for Clinton in a House district won by a Republican. This year, Anselmo’s up against DFLer Heather Edelson, a mental health therapist. Outside spending by DFL sympathizers to help Edelson has not, so far, been matched by Republican groups, which could signal they’ve decided to put resources elsewhere.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$17,303.73
Spent to help Republicans
$2,500.00
20th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Dario Anselmo (R)
51.04%
Ron Erhardt (DFL)
48.79%
State Senator District 49, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 52, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Matt Klein (DFL)
61.62%
Mark Misukanis (R)
38.24%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
55.98%
Trump (R)
34.51%
State House District 52B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Regina Barr (R) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Ruth Richardson (DFL)
That Democrats are hoping to pick up Republican Regina Barr’s southeast suburban seat isn’t a huge surprise given what happened there on election night in 2016. That night, Barr, a consultant seeking a second term, beat DFLer Mary T’Kach by just 121 votes in a district that went for Clinton by a big margin. This year, the DFL has recruited Ruth Richardson, who has worked in leadership in government, nonprofits and the private sector, most recently at the Minnesota Organization on Fetal Alcohol Syndrome.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$16,633.59
Spent to help Republicans
$54,886.67
5th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Regina Barr (R)
50.17%
Mary T'Kach (DFL)
49.62%
State Senator District 52, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 53, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Sharna Wahlgren (R)
53.12%
Susan Kent (DFL)
46.83%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
50.22%
Trump (R)
41.53%
State House District 54A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Keith Franke (R) (First elected: 2016)
Challengers:
Anne Claflin (DFL)
Keith Franke won a relatively close race in 2016 to win his first term. But Clinton defeated Trump by a similar margin, making the race a possible pick-up for the DFL. As such, it is attracting a lot of direct spending as well as independent money both for and against Franke. The small businessperson is facing a new opponent this election — Anne Claflin — a scientist specializing in climate change policy who also leads Hamline University’s Women in Public Service Conference.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$18,405.79
Spent to help Republicans
$56,959.01
4th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Keith Franke (R)
51.43%
Jen Peterson (DFL)
48.46%
State Senator District 54, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 54, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Leilani Holmstadt (R)
49.97%
Dan Schoen (DFL)
49.86%
President, 2016:
Trump (R)
48.2%
Clinton (D)
42.38%
State House District 55A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Erik Mortensen (R)
Brad Tabke (DFL)
This is not a race that normally would be on a target list. Incumbent Republican Bob Loonan won it with nearly 56 percent of the vote in 2016 and Trump beat Clinton by 4.5 percent. But Loonan lost the GOP endorsement and then a primary challenge from his right by Erik Mortensen. (That primary challenge is responsible for much of the outside spending in this race.) The DFL nominated Brad Tabke, a former two-term mayor of Shakopee. Tabke entered the race late after endorsed DFLer Mary Hernandez dropped out for personal reasons.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$23,721.00
Spent to help Republicans
$62,367.30
2nd highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Bob Loonan (R)
55.78%
Mary Hernandez (DFL)
43.99%
State Senator District 55, 2016: Results from this House district only.
State Senator District 56, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Dan Hall (R)
56.36%
Phillip Sterner (DFL)
43.47%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
46.7%
Trump (R)
43.74%
State House District 56B
District to Watch
Incumbent:
Roz Peterson (R) (First elected: 2014)
Challengers:
Alice Mann (DFL)
Republican Roz Peterson became a target for the DFL the day after the 2016 election. Peterson won her second term by nearly 5 points — the same margin by which Clinton topped Trump in this district. The 56B campaign is among the state’s most expensive. The DFL nominated Alice Mann is a Mayo-trained family practice physician in the southern suburbs and has traveled around the world to provide medical care in Tanzania, Mali, Nicaragua, Haiti, Brazil and Zimbabwe.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$16,272.85
Spent to help Republicans
$62,390.07
3rd highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Roz Peterson (R)
52.37%
Lindsey Port (DFL)
47.46%
State Senator District 56, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Dan Hall (R)
53.75%
Phillip Sterner (DFL)
46.06%
President, 2016:
Clinton (D)
48.17%
Trump (R)
43.48%
State House District 57A
District to Watch
Incumbent:
None - open seat
Candidates:
Matt Lundin (R)
Robert Bierman (DFL)
Republicans were targeting this race even before DFL incumbent Erin Maye Quade opted out of her first re-election effort to run instead for lieutenant governor on a ticket with Erin Murphy. In her place, the DFL nominated Robert Bierman, the owner of a third-generation home furnishing business and the past president of both the Chamber of Commerce and the Rotary. Republicans nominated Matt Lundin, a real estate agent and youth hockey coach who has the distinction in a hockey crazed district of being the emergency goalie for the Minnesota Wild. This seat had been under GOP control for four terms before Maye Quade won an open race, but it favored Clinton by 6.2 percent in 2016 and money is flowing from both sides in a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup.
Map & Total spending
Outside spending
Spent to help Democrats
$4,957.68
Spent to help Republicans
$53,595.47
10th highest spending of all House districts.
Past election results
This district, 2016:
Erin Maye Quade (DFL)
52.23%
Ali Jimenez-Hopper (R)
47.52%
State Senator District 57, 2016: Results from this House district only.
Uh oh. The Star Tribune’s Paul Walsh reports: “A predawn house fire in Minneapolis was deliberately set, and police suspect that ‘Black Lives Matter’ and Paul Wellstone signs in the midst of the blaze could reveal a motive, a neighborhood leader said.”
Whew. The Pioneer Press’ Bob Shaw reports: “If White Bear Lake dries up, don’t blame the lawn sprinklers. … That’s the message from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, which released new research Wednesday showing why the level of the lake fluctuates. … Officials said that a court-ordered ban on outdoor residential watering within five miles of the lake would have a negligible effect on the lake.”
You still gotta like Omar’s chances.The AP reports (via KSTP): “A Minnesota Democratic candidate for Congress who is poised to become the first Somali-American elected to the U.S. House has denounced claims that she married her brother and committed immigration fraud as ‘disgusting lies,’ and says allegations of campaign finance violations are politically motivated. … Ilhan Omar, who is running in Minnesota’s liberal 5th District, continues to be dogged by conservatives who have raised questions about her past. As the election approaches, the attacks are intensifying: Last week, Minnesota Republicans in the 5th District began a digital billboard campaign and launched a website that highlights the allegations, many of which were first raised by conservative media outlets in 2016 as Omar was running for her seat in the Minnesota Legislature.”
Charged debate. MPR’s Elizabeth Dunbar reports: “Minnesota regulators are weighing whether to let Minnesota Power team up with Dairyland Power Cooperative in Wisconsin to build a new natural gas power plant in Superior, Wis., just across the border from Duluth. … But attorneys for several of the larger companies Minnesota Power serves — ArcelorMittal USA, Blandin Paper Company, U.S. Steel Corp., and others — have joined environmental groups and consumer advocates in arguing that the proposed Nemadji Trail Energy Center isn’t needed.”
Horror films are scary. Horror theater is arguably scarier. The energy of live theater, the closeness and immediacy, can ramp up the fear factor.
Launched in 2012 by Four Humors Theater as a juried, horror-themed, live-performance arts festival, now overseen by United Festival Group (whose owners include Four Humors’ Jason Ballweber, Ryan Lear and Matt Spring), the Twin Cities Horror Festival has called the Southern Theater home since the start. Old, intimate and worn, its classic proscenium arch a gaping maw, the Southern is a perfect place to scare people silly.
TCHF VII starts next Thursday, Oct. 25, and runs through Sunday, Nov. 4, with 13 different shows and experiences. Most are suggested for ages 13 or 16 and up. Just one, Rogues Gallery Arts’ “The Legend of Sleepy Hollow,” is all-ages.
[cms_ad:x100]Four nationally and internationally known guest companies and artists will perform: Toronto’s Kairos Collective, New York’s Jody Christopherson, Breaker/Fixer Productions from Fayetteville, Arkansas, and Portland’s Amica & Hecate, whose “Funerals for Life” take place in the lobby. For a sliding scale donation ($15-30 suggested), you’ll lie down on their coroner’s slab and be embalmed. You’ll leave with a photo and a signed death certificate.
“A Morbid History of Sons & Daughters” by the Vincent Hovis Experience (cabaret artist Leslie Vincent and composer Keith Hovis, with friends) is a song cycle about serial killers. Tom Reed’s “Greenway” is a bike commuter’s worst nightmare. Christopherson’s “St. Kilda” follows a working-class woman from Nebraska as she unearths a dark family secret on an abandoned island off the coast of Scotland. Kairos Collective’s “The Bathtub Girls” is a tale of sibling matricide. Garrett Vollmer’s “Home,” the newest horror show from Dangerous Productions, digs into what happens in the basements of small-town America. There will be blood.
Playable Artworks’ “Second Skin” is an audio-driven, site-specific adventure that takes you out of the Southern and around the Seven Corners neighborhood. You’re the protagonist in an interactive horror adventure.
Not everything is scary. Reverend Matt’s “Monster Science: The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea” is a pair of comedy lectures.
Each show has five performances. “Second Skin” is by appointment, “Funerals for Life” is by reservation. View the whole line-up and buy tickets or passes here. If you’re a glutton for punishment, a Skeleton Key ($180) gives you unlimited priority access.
More Halloween fun
The Haunted Basement is back, now in its 12th year and not at the Soap Factory anymore (since 2017, if you missed that memo). It’s in a new home – Building No. 9 of the old General Mills Research Facility in Minneapolis – with new horrors. Their words: “Expect strong smells, physical contact, and projectile liquids. You may get very messy, you may have to crawl, and you may find yourself in a confined space with something horrible.” Sounds great! FMI, times and tickets ($25). Ends Oct. 31.
Film Society
Benedict Cumberbatch and Jonny Lee Miller in National Theatre Live’s “Frankenstein.”
National Theatre Live’s “Frankenstein” returns to the Film Society’s St. Anthony Main Theatre for six screenings between Monday (Oct. 22) and Nov. 26. Benedict Cumberbatch and Jonny Lee Miller (“Elementary,” “Dexter,” “Trainspotting”) alternate between the roles of Victor Frankenstein and the Creature. Directed by Danny Boyle (“Trainspotting,” “Slumdog Millionaire”). FMI including trailer, times and tickets ($20-10).
It’s the 200th birthday of Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein,” and the U of M’s Department of English is celebrating. On Tuesday, Oct. 23, Twin Cities actors will read from “Frankenstein” and other 19th-century monster texts. 7 p.m. in Lind Hall, room 2017A. On Wednesday, Oct. 31 (Halloween night), U of M students will present an evening of original “Ghost Stories.” 6:30 p.m. in Pillsbury Hall, room 110. Both events are free and open to the public.
The Zeitgeist Halloween Festival 2018: “Things That Go Bump in the Night” is four nights of live music and storytelling. Each night will be different. The music includes new works by Dameun Strange, Dan Nass and Doug Opal; Mark Engebretson’s “She Sings She Screams”; a new work by Alyssa Anderson inspired by Edgar Allen Poe’s “The Bells”; electronic sets by DeVon Russell Gray and Eric Gonzalez; and an improvised on-the-spot score to a silent horror film. The storytellers are Loren Niemi, Debra Ting and Laura Packer. “Crocus Hill Ghost Story,” a musical tale of a house possessed, will be performed twice. Oct. 25–28 at Studio Z. FMI including schedule, times and tickets (singles $15/10, festival pass $40).
[cms_ad:x101]Count on the Trylon to have its Halloween on. From Friday, Oct. 26, through Sunday, Oct. 28, its William Castle Fright Fest will feature two vintage films by the legendary schlockmeister: “House on Haunted Hill” (1959) starring Vincent Price and “Homicidal” (1961) starring Joan Marshall and Glenn Corbett. Per the Trylon, “House” was “filmed in Emergo, a process so terrifying it hasn’t been used in any movie since.” FMI, times and tickets ($8).
The picks
Tonight (Friday, Oct. 19) at Highpoint Center for Printmaking: Opening reception for “Kinngait Studios: Printmaking in the Arctic Circle.” Prints from Kinngait (pronounced Kinn-ite), the Inuit printmaking studios at the West Baffin Cooperative in Nunavut, Canada, are coveted around the world. This exhibition of work by 18 artists covers a wide range of imagery, from traditional Inuit practices to contemporary subject matter to Inuit lore. One of the featured artists is Kananginak Pootoogook, the first Inuit artist to be presented in the Venice Biennale (2017). Tour and talk by Inuk art scholar Heather Igloliorte at 5:30 p.m., RSVP requested. Reception 6:30-9 p.m. FMI. Free and open to the public. Correction: The tour and talk are on Friday, Nov. 16, not Friday, Oct. 19. Apologies if you showed up early on the 19th for that (so did we!).
Courtesy of Highpoint Center for Printmaking
"Undersea Illusion" by Pitaloosie Saila, 2012, Lithograph
Saturday at the Minnesota History Center: “Crucial Conversations: Refugees and Minnesota.” Refugees displaced by war, religious persecution and genocide have resettled in Minnesota for more than a century. In recent years, fears around national security, limited resources and national identity have led to the U.S. accepting fewer refugees. Staff trained by the International Coalition of Sites of Conscience will lead small-group conversations to explore the history of refugees in Minnesota and exchange ideas. 10 a.m.-11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m.-2:30 p.m. Free.
Saturday at Macalester’s Mairs Concert Hall: Gao Hong and Issam Rafea. Chinese pipa master Hong and Syrian oud master Rafea recently released their latest album, “Life as Is,” to international acclaim. They will be joined by students in the Macalester Asian Music Ensemble. In the Janet Wallace Fine Arts Center, 130 Macalester Street. 7:30 p.m. Free.
Sunday on your teevee: Minnesota Original. The broadcast version of TPT’s arts and culture series continues with profiles of choreographer Karen L. Charles, watercolor artist Tara Sweeney, author Carter Meland and musician Stokley Williams. Inspired by her father’s death to do what was truly important to her, Charles quit her job as a mathematician to start a dance company. Watercolorist Sweeney is creating an alphabet book based on objects Swedish immigrants carried to this country. Educator Meland learned about his Anishinabe heritage in his thirties and turned that discovery into his first novel. And MNO caught up with Williams, longtime lead singer for Mint Condition, as he debuted his first solo album at the Ordway. Watch Sunday at 6 p.m. on TPT 2 or view all four stories online.
Monday at the Dakota: “Hooked on Hamilton.” T. Mychael Rambo leads a cast of Twin Cities favorites in songs from Broadway’s biggest hit. 7 p.m. FMI and tickets ($40-30).
Monday through Thursday (Oct. 22–25) on your teevee and at the St. Anthony Main Theatre: “Welcome to Waverly.” Aswar Rahman, an immigrant from Bangladesh who grew up in Northeast Minneapolis, ran for mayor of Minneapolis in 2017. He suspended his campaign on Nov. 2 and endorsed Jacob Frey. He’s now digital director for Dean Phillips, who’s running for Congress in Minnesota’s Third District against Erik Paulson. In between, Rahman made a four-part TV series for Bravo. He was one of seven professionals from major metro areas who spent six weeks living and working in the small town of Waverly, Kansas, population 563. You can watch the series at home (9–10 p.m. on Bravo) or join Rahman, his friends and family for live watch parties at the St. Anthony Main. 8:30 p.m. all four nights. FMI. Free (first come, first served). Here’s the Facebook event page.
Klobuchar is heavily favored to win a third Senate term this year, generally deflects questions about any presidential aspirations, and is relatively less known nationally than some others on the list (but she did get a fair bit of generally favorable national exposure during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings). She got the promotion from CNN based on this:
Unlike her Senate colleagues Warren, Harris and even Gillibrand, the Minnesota Democrat isn’t one of the first names on most Democrats’ lips when the conversation turns to 2020. But during the Kavanaugh hearings, Klobuchar distinguished herself in ways no one else mentioned as a Democratic presidential candidate did. Her questioning of Kavanaugh’s drinking past became a huge moment — and one in which Klobuchar shone. If you are looking for a dark horse, you could do worse than Klobuchar.
This is still dumb, but if you’re curious, the five on the list ahead of Klobuchar, in order, are:
[cms_ad:x100]Massachusetts Sen Elizabeth Warren; California Sen. Kamala Harris; former Veep and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; and Vermont Sen Bernie Sanders.
And maybe this is less dumb: For an old guy like me — born under President Harry Truman, when there was exactly one female in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Margaret Chase Smith, Republican of Maine;one of Hispanic heritage, and zero black senators — it’s pretty amazing, and evidence of a great deal of progress, that a list like this could get all the way to the sixth spot and have only two white males in the top five.
That made me want to look up a good quote from the great Sen. Smith, whom I recall from my childhood, that will help recall how much things have changed since she sought her first Senate term in 1948. The excerpt below is from Smith’s Wikipedia article; it refers to her race in the primary leading to her election for her first Senate term:
When the wife of one of her opponents questioned whether a woman would be a good Senator, Smith replied, “Women administer the home. They set the rules, enforce them, mete out justice for violations. Thus, like Congress, they legislate; like the Executive, they administer; like the courts, they interpret the rules. It is an ideal experience for politics. On June 21, 1948, she won the primary election and received more votes than her three opponents combined. In the general election on September 13, she defeated Democrat Adrian H. Scolten by a margin of 71%–29%.
Extinction is part of evolution, but the unnatural rapidity of current species losses forces us to address whether we are cutting off twigs or whole branches from the tree of life.
— Matt Davis, scholar of evolutionary history
There is more than one way to look at the current period of mass extinction — count the species blinking out, chart them by class or map their geographic distribution, track the pace of the demise and so on. A particularly intriguing one, new to me and maybe to you, is at the center of a fresh analysis quoted above, which examines the variable impact of ongoing mammal losses on Earth’s evolutionary history, and concludes that not all critters contribute equally.
Think for a moment of evolution not as a set of independent threads, each ending in an animal we know, but as a branching process. Maybe try seeing it as that splendid maple with the vermilion leaves that caught your eye the other day.
[cms_ad:x100]Maples lose their leaves each fall; that’s life. Species go extinct from natural causes and are replaced by new types; that’s evolution. But if someone prunes an entire small branch from the tree, perhaps to make the lawn-mowing easier, or if a windstorm tears a large limb off at the trunk — that’s a loss of wholly different magnitude.
This new analysis speaks of the “tree of life” on this planet, and its twigs don’t all end in the same kind of leaf. Some produce bats, still others give us beavers or boars or bulldogs — not to mention the bluebuck and a few types of bandicoot that are no longer with us. (Also bobolinks, broccoli and the Monarch butterfly, but this paper limits its consideration to mammals.)
Examining extinction in this branching way — looking beyond the disappearance of the black rhino here or the passenger pigeon there — brings into focus the loss of entire lineages of life, and it will not surprise you to hear that the picture is not pretty.
On the other hand, it raises a provocative notion that maybe not all species are equally worth saving, and the potentially useful suggestion that this perspective ought perhaps to shape conservation strategies:
Rather than try to save every extant species, or to set aside some large percentage of the earth’s habitat still hospitable to whatever wildlife happens to live there, the researchers think we maybe ought to emphasize the species that carry a long line of evolutionary history and, thus, contain an ability to extend it. Which may challenge our patterns of affection for some species over others.
For examples, they contrast the critically endangered pygmy sloth, about the size a cat and kind of cute as sloths go, with the aardvark, a personal favorite of mine since junior high school.
Save sloth, or aardvark?
The critically endangered pygmy sloth has walked the earth, sluggishly, for less than 10,000 years or so, and is just one species on the bountiful limb of sloth life. As for aardvarks, many kinds have come and gone over the last 75 million years; just one remains, but its odds of beating near-term extinction are looking pretty good.
If the pygmy sloth blinks out, the authors calculate, its contributions to “phylogenic diversity” or PD — essentially, evolutionary history — would be replaced in about 20 months. But if the aardvark disappears, so does the entire lineage of its order Orycteropus, along with 75,000 millennia of contribution to biodiversity.
For this analysis, published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors looked back 130,000 years to an interglacial period they feel fairly marks the beginning of the current mass extinction — the sixth in Earth’s history, and the first in which human activity is the driver.
Then they drew up a “birth-death tree framework” to measure losses of PD up to now, and forecast how long their recovery might take. They figure that humans erased about 2 billion years of PD up through the year 1500; since then, the pace has picked up and another 500 million years of diversity has been wiped.
[cms_ad:x101]This represents more than 300 mammal species, unevenly distributed throughout the tree branches. For reasons that probably began with hunting efficiency, and center today on habitat loss, the biggest animals have been hardest hit. Their emptied ecological niches — as predators, prey, seed distributors, manure factories, landscape remodelers and more — are also oversized, as are the blank spots they leave in evolutionary history:
Several unique mammal lineages (notably the endemic South American orders Litopterna and Notoungulata [of hoofed and usually heavy mammals]) were completely lost during the likely human-linked extinctions of the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene. These extinctions also decimated the sloth and anteater, armadillo, odd-toed ungulate, and elephant lineages, all disproportionately rich in PD….
[P]rehistoric and historic extinctions were highly size-biased, devastating large mammals, a group shouldering a disproportionate share of PD. Evolutionary history has its own intrinsic value, but these lost years also represent a loss of instrumental value in the extinction of unique functional traits. Human-linked extinctions have already left the world in an atypical state: depauperate of large animals and the important ecosystem functions and services they provide.
No ‘Lilliput effect’ yet
Despite some hopeful speculation about a “Lilliput effect” in which “small, surviving species rapidly evolve into vacant niches,” the paper says there is no evidence to date that this can happen with mammals, especially since they evolve more slowly than other forms of animal life.
Climate change and its impacts are not accorded much of a role as extinction drivers to date, but those contributions are changing rapidly.
As of today, the paper says, it would take nearly 500,000 years for the planet’s 5,400 surviving mammal types to restore phylogenic diversity as it existed before people began species exterminations, even if the calculations assume neither losses of more mammal species nor gains of new ones. There will be both, of course, with the losses more readily predicted than the gains; the International Union for the Conservation of Nature predicts that two-thirds of species now listed as endangered — and virtually all listed as critically endangered — will be lost in the coming century.
The researchers calculate that if current patterns persist for just 50 years, it would take the Earth’s mammals 5 million to 7 million years to recover the level of PD that existed before human influence. So, they say, it might be best to take the next steps with highly targeted efforts in mind:
The only real option to speed PD recovery is to save unique evolutionary history before it is already lost. In addition to increasing overall conservation efforts, we should use available PD methods to prioritize action for evolutionarily distinct species. … If we could momentarily stop extinctions for mammals, we would save as much evolutionary history in the next 100 years as what our ancestors lost in the last 100,000.
With the extinction of so many megafauna, we’ve lost both a whole chunk of functional space and some of the longest branches on the evolutionary tree. This kind of pattern isn’t common in the extinctions we know of from the fossil record, so we are entering uncharted territory.
The full paper, “Mammal diversity will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis,” can be read here, but access is not free.
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This week in Washington, the President hit the campaign trail hard, and found a little time to help Saudi Arabia clean up the mess it made over a disappeared journalist. In Minnesota and elsewhere, midterms are in full swing, and Democrats finally have more money than Republicans, which they will definitely not waste on bad ideas.
This week in Washington
Good afternoon from Washington, where nothing is happening, really — it’s Midterm Season! And with 19 days until those elections, it’s all hands on deck at the MinnPost MINN-DECISION 2K18 Desk™️, and we’ll head there first to recap what was a big, consequential week on the campaign trail.
First off: candidates for U.S. House and Senate released their fundraising reports for 2018’s third quarter this week, giving us a look at what kind of resources campaigns are working with heading into the election’s home stretch.
[cms_ad:x100]It’s a great time to check out MinnPost’s handy Campaign Finance Dashboard, which tracks how much cash is on hand for each of the leading candidates for Congress and statewide office.
You can get into the nitty-gritty on that very useful and well-designed page, but the big picture: Democrats just have a ton of cash. In Minnesota’s U.S. Senate races and in several U.S. House races, Democrats have outraised Republicans and have more cash on hand to use in the election’s final weeks.
Even incumbents — who almost always win the fundraising race — are getting smoked: Angie Craig, Democratic candidate in the 2nd District, has outraised GOP Rep. Jason Lewis by over $1.2 million to date, and has $600,000 more on hand. Craig, along with 1st District Democrat Dan Feehan and 8th District Democrat Joe Radinovich all had monster summers for fundraising, bringing in anywhere from $1.2 to $2.1 million, outraising their GOP opponents.
This dynamic is playing out around the country as Dems and Republicans battle for control of the House: 61 Democratic candidates raised over $1 million from July through September, and all Democratic congressional candidates have collectively raised more than $1 billion. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats raked in 65 percent of all the money raised in House races — the highest share for any party since records began in 1998.
This good Politico look at the fundraising situation has as its headline a quote from a GOP operative that sums it up: “We’re getting our asses kicked.” With their candidates getting outraised, the outside groups that back up Republicans, like the National Republican Congressional Committee, are now forced to make tough decisions about who among their own is worth supporting and who’s not as they build a firewall around their 23-seat majority. Chaser: President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is raising unprecedented amounts of money this far out from the presidential election, and the New York Times reports that some Republicans are fuming that he’s not spreading the wealth to save the party in the midterms. (POTUS is all about loyalty!)
Poll-watch: the NYT and Siena College, whose live polls have attracted a lot of buzz this cycle, went back into the field in Minnesota’s 8th District, where their poll of the Radinovich vs. Pete Stauber race in September found Radinovich up by one point. Their latest poll found Stauber up… by a whopping 14 points.
This result sparked a lot of debate, with the Radinovich camp dismissing it as a junk poll that didn’t accurately reflect that CD8 electorate. I wrote up the poll in a post this week; one of the red flags I noticed was that Trump’s approval rating in the 8th went up by 19 points in the four weeks between the NYT’s two surveys. That huge jump suggests the two polls got at two totally different slices of the district’s electorate.
The NYT felt compelled to write an explanation of why things changed so much between their two polls. The Timberjay paper, out of Ely, also did a good breakdown of this from a local perspective. I’m curious to think about how we’ll look back on the NYT’s polling experiment in a few weeks, but for now, these results do have an effect.
To that point: perhaps the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — House Dems’ leading campaign arm — doesn’t think Radinovich is down by 14, but they apparently see the race breaking in a bad way: this week, the DCCC pulled the remaining $1.2 million in ad spending it had reserved for CD8, choosing to redirect it to races in CD1 and CD2.
This news prompted Republicans to crow that Democrats were cutting Radinovich loose and have given up on CD8. Political forecaster Dave Wasserman moved CD8 on Wednesday from the “toss-up” column to the “lean Republican column.”
The Housley campaign initially responded saying this was a hit job from the liberal media; Housley later told the Star Tribune that Obama is a “wonderful lady” and that the comments were taken out of context to fuel political attacks.
This topic might have come up in a scheduled debate between Housley and Sen. Tina Smith on Sunday, but Smith declined to join. Now the campaigns are fighting about debates, which is the best kind of fight in politics. But the two candidates are expected to go at it in person on November 1 and 4, just a few days before the election.
AD OF THE WEEK! Until the midterms, I’m going to spotlight the best and worst of the political communication currently flooding your airwaves and clogging your social media feeds. The stand-out ad for me this week was a 30-second spot from the NRCC attacking Dan Feehan in CD1. It was an impressive kitchen sink-throwing of conservative complaints: I’ve never seen one ad so ambitiously weave together outrage over Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the national anthem and outrage over the activities of the liberal Jewish financier George Soros! Extra graphic design points for the shadowy image of Soros in the background and piles of money and antifa protesters in the foreground. (National media, like the Daily Beast, quickly picked up on it.)
Stepping back for a second on the midterms: Republicans are already fighting about who they’ll blame if they lose their House majority, according to the Associated Press. At least one person is resting easy: the president, who told the AP this week in an Oval Office sit-down that he won’t deserve any blame if his party suffers losses in the midterms.
Other campaign stuff: I wrote about how Nancy Pelosi, the veteran Democratic leader, is yet again a useful bogeyman for Republicans to use to attack Democratic congressional candidates and fire up conservative base voters. The wrinkle this year: a lot of Dem upstarts are mum, or even publicly chilly, on the prospect of Pelosi remaining at the helm of the party. Third District DFLer Dean Phillips has called for “new leadership” in the party, while Feehan and Craig are saying they’ll reserve judgment until they’re in D.C.
Relatedly, Pelosi appears on the cover of this week’s New York magazine “women in power” issue alongside one other woman: state Rep. Ilhan Omar, likely to be the next member of Congress in the 5th Congressional District. Watch the dynamic between these two next year, as Pelosi and the Democratic old guard battle young left-wing insurgents like Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for influence over the direction of the party in Congress.
At the White House: there’s talk that the administration is reviewing actions to renew the family separation policy at the U.S.-Mexico border in the wake of increased border crossings by undocumented migrants. The media has taken to calling this “Family Separation 2.0,” and it’s a dangerous road for Trump to go down so close to the midterms: the separation policy, when it was enacted this summer, generated more public outrage than maybe anything else the administration has done. Ask a Republican candidate about something Trump has done that they’ve disagreed with, and most will cite family separation.
As the NYT reports, however, Trump and some of his hard-line advisors believe cracking down on undocumented immigrants is a huge political winner for them — so why not do it two weeks from the election?
Politico’s Playbook reports the White House is gearing up for a PR assault on the Farm Bill, the massive piece of legislation on nutrition and agriculture policy, which is currently stalled amid Congress’ disagreements over a GOP plan to increase work requirements for those who receive food assistance. The top Dem on the House Ag panel, Rep. Collin Peterson of western Minnesota, has held the line here, saying the Republican plan is a non-starter and has been for years. Trump and his inner circle, meanwhile, believe that beating the drum on work requirements will be a political winner for them ahead of the elections — even though any real movement on the legislation will take place in the post-election lame duck session.
Trump’s response to this horrific episode has amounted to a search for reasons to overlook the Saudis’ apparent murder of a dissident: WaPo details his rationalization, which includes emphasizing the importance of U.S. arms sales to the kingdom and the Saudis’ role in helping the U.S. exert pressure on Iran, which it calls a human rights-abusing rogue state. (The NYT has more on that point.) In a nifty bit of news-cycle merging, Trump has also compared the murder allegations against Saudi royals to the sexual assault allegations against Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Back in the Swamp: there’s been good coverage of what this saga means for D.C.’s lobbying sector, in which the Saudis are an influential presence, spending millions each year on contracts with Washington firms. Some key lobbying firms are terminating those contracts in the wake of the Khashoggi story, while others are continuing to work for Saudi Arabia — such as Hogan Lovells, which employs former Sen. Norm Coleman to handle the Kingdom’s interests in D.C. HuffPost has a look at the playbook Saudi Arabia might employ to push assert themselves in the Swamp right now.
Liberal #Resisters have yelled about Trump’s business interests in Saudi Arabia as an explanation for his conduct. Though there’s plenty of reasons to believe this is how Trump would approach this crisis anyway, WaPo’s David Fahrenthold reports that officials in Trump’s hotel business discussed how Saudi visits to their properties were padding their bottom line.
This week’s essential reads
Mark Zuckerberg has spent $1 million of his considerable fortune to support a ballot measure to ease criminal penalties on nonviolent drug offenders — not in his home state of California, but in Ohio. Increasingly, billionaires are spending piles of money to influence local politics around the country — and some locals don’t like it. The Center for Public Integrity’s Liz Essley White:
Zuckerberg’s investment in a ballot measure a long way from home is hardly unique. The liberal billionaire George Soros has given $5 million for issues on the ballot this fall around the country. The California environmentalist Tom Steyer has spent $10 million.
All told, this trio and 22 other American billionaires have invested more than $70.7 million for initiative campaigns this year in 19 states where they do not reside.
In total, the $78 million tally from all 34 billionaires—local givers and out-of-state donors alike—may be pocket change to them, but it is more than 10 percent of the $648 million disclosed so far this year for statewide ballot-measure campaigns, as tracked by the nonpartisan political encyclopedia Ballotpedia. And the total is likely an undercount of billionaires’ influence on this year’s ballot measures. It doesn’t include gifts from billionaire-led corporations, or from nonprofits where the billionaires are among a multitude of backers, or from nonprofits whose donors’ identities are unknown.
As with Tobin and the prosecutors association in Ohio, the handouts from the wealthy to campaigns across state lines rankle some local opponents, even though no one questions their legality. Just who should decide issues in their state, they ask—the people who live there, or some rich folks from out of state?
Whether you’re addicted to cable news or have just glanced at headlines in the last year, you know Robert Mueller’s investigation of Trump and Russia is a big deal. But with a potentially explosive cloud hanging over the GOP, candidates from both parties are basically pretending the Mueller probe doesn’t exist at all. Politico’s Darren Samuelsohn explains why:
It’s a rare phenomenon in modern American politics to have a midterm election coincide with a major investigation that delves into anything related to the president. Even rarer is the phenomenon of voters going to the polls at the same time that an investigation remains active into questions of criminality tied to the winning campaign from the most recent presidential election.
That makes predicting the Mueller inquiry’s influence on voters that much more challenging, and why Democratic and Republican party operatives and candidates say the topic is best handled as mood music rather than as a primary argument to be used to drive turnout.
“It’s not the best thing for Democrats to be talking about right now,” said Robby Mook, the former Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign manager. “We just need to let Mueller do his job. Politicizing it even more isn’t going to help that.”
The way Trump’s election galvanized women to participate in politics, from the Women’s Marches to today, has been a well-covered story. Two weeks out from the election, WaPo traveled to Ohio to reflect on how the “blue wave,” if it hits, will be fueled by a group of white, middle-class women who have arranged their lives around stopping Trump.
Thin margins of error have not discouraged the new foot soldiers of the Democratic resistance. They don’t cover their faces with bandannas, speak of socialist revolution or get lost in debates about the best model for Medicare expansion.
Instead, many of them juggle campaign events with school commutes and soccer practice. They leave the kids with their husbands to march, come out of retirement to register voters and form close bonds with neighbors who were strangers when Hillary Clinton was the presumptive president. An aspiring blue wave with a decidedly pink hue, they are women defined by a desire to atone for their relative inaction in 2016.
“People are making social connections that they really, really like,” said Abby Karp, an organizer for Swing Left in North Carolina, who works days as a dean at a private school in Greensboro. “I don’t even have a Facebook page anymore. I have a political page. I don’t know what my cousin is doing. I know what canvass is coming up.”
As we near the end of another ugly and divisive election season, it’s worth reflecting on one of the figures who has played a central role in shaping what our politics have become: Newt Gingrich.
The Atlantic’s McKay Coppins, one of the media’s sharpest observers of the right, profiled Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House who pioneered a brand of zero-sum, slash-and-burn politics that has spread from Congress — whose norms Gingrich trashed in the 1990s — to every corner of the country. In the era of Trump, the leader of the “Republican Revolution” is now sitting back and savoring the chaos.
In the clamorous story of Donald Trump’s Washington, it would be easy to mistake Gingrich for a minor character. A loyal Trump ally in 2016, Gingrich forwent a high-powered post in the administration and has instead spent the years since the election cashing in on his access—churning out books (three Trump hagiographies, one spy thriller), working the speaking circuit (where he commands as much as $75,000 per talk for his insights on the president), and popping up on Fox News as a paid contributor. He spends much of his time in Rome, where his wife, Callista, serves as Trump’s ambassador to the Vatican and where, he likes to boast, “We have yet to find a bad restaurant.”
But few figures in modern history have done more than Gingrich to lay the groundwork for Trump’s rise. During his two decades in Congress, he pioneered a style of partisan combat—replete with name-calling, conspiracy theories, and strategic obstructionism—that poisoned America’s political culture and plunged Washington into permanent dysfunction. Gingrich’s career can perhaps be best understood as a grand exercise in devolution—an effort to strip American politics of the civilizing traits it had developed over time and return it to its most primal essence. …
Twenty-five years after engineering the Republican Revolution, Gingrich can draw a direct line from his work in Congress to the upheaval now taking place around the globe. But as he surveys the wreckage of the modern political landscape, he is not regretful. He’s gleeful.
“The old order is dying,” he tells me. “Almost everywhere you have freedom, you have a very deep discontent that the system isn’t working.” And that’s a good thing? I ask.
“It’s essential,” he says, “if you want Western civilization to survive.”
What to look for next week
Midterms, midterms, midterms. Did I mention there were midterms?
The president, maintaining an active campaign schedule, will swing through the West in the next few days: he’ll rally in Montana on Thursday, Arizona on Friday, and then on to Nevada and Texas. All four states are seeing hotly contested elections for U.S. Senate — particularly the Lone Star State, where Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the Democrat challenging Sen. Ted Cruz, just raised an insane $38 million in three months. Trump will stump in Houston for Cruz, his onetime rival for the GOP presidential nomination. The two have become pals after Trump mocked Cruz’s wife and suggested his father had something to do with the assassination of JFK.
Meanwhile, I’ll be hopping on a plane to Minnesota to cover the home stretch of this crazy election season, so look forward to a few on-the-ground reports from me over the next two weeks.
Until then, please channel all your anti-Wisconsin energies to my Los Angeles Dodgers, who are on the brink of sending the Milwaukee Brewers packing and punching a ticket to the World Series. Send me an email, too: sbrodey@minnpost.com.
Americans will be living longer by 2040, but that improvement in lifespan will not be as great as that of many other countries around the world, according to a study published this week in the international medical journal The Lancet.
The average U.S. life expectancy is projected to be 79.8 in 2040, just 1.1 years longer than in 2016, the study says. That compares with an anticipated global rise in average life expectancy of 4.4 years for both men (to 74.3 years) and women (to 79.7 years) during that same 25-year period.
As a result, the life expectancy ranking of the United States among developed countries is likely to go into free fall, plunging from an already pretty dismal 43rd in 2016 to 64th in 2040.
But the U.S. is not the only high-income country that is expected to slip in the rankings. The report projects that Canada will fall from 17th to 27th, Norway from 12th to 20th, Taiwan from 35th to 42nd, Belgium from 21st to 28thand the Netherlands from 15th to 21st.
[cms_ad:x100]Still, none of those countries are expected to drop as far as the U.S. — 21 rungs in the rankings.
This is not the only report of troubling trends in U.S. life expectancy that we’ve received this year. In September, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that U.S. life expectancy declined for the second year in a row in 2016 — the first time it has done so in decades. CDC officials cited three factors — drug overdoses, suicide and chronic liver disease (which is often caused by alcohol abuse) — as the primary drivers behind that fall.
Leading the pack
By 2040, Spain will likely be ranked first in the world for life expectancy, with an average lifespan of 85.8 years, according to forecasts in The Lancet report. In 2016, Spain held the fourth spot on the list.
Japan, the world’s current leader in life expectancy, is expected to slide downward into second place in 2040 with an average lifespan of 85.7 years.
Here are the other countries projected to be in the top 10 in 2040:
Singapore (85.4 years)
Switzerland (85.2 years)
Portugal (84.5 years)
Italy (84.5 years)
Israel (84.4 years)
France (82.3 years)
Luxembourg (84.1 years)
Australia (84.1 years)
The only country on that list that isn’t already in the top 10 is Portugal, which was ranked 23rd in life expectancy (with an average lifespan of 81 years) in 2016.
Several more of the world’s 195 countries and territories are expected to show significant improvements in the rankings, according to the new report. The average lifespan of people living in China, for example, is expected to climb from its current 76.3 years to 81.9 years in 2040. That would move China from 68th to 39th in the life-expectancy rankings — higher than the U.S.
In addition, Syria is expected to rise from 137th to 80th, Nigeria from 157th to 123rd and Indonesia from 117th to 100th.
The report puts the southern African country of Lesotho at the bottom of the 2040 rankings, with a predicted life expectancy of 57.3 years. The Central African Republic currently holds that position.
Lesotho, the Central African Republic, Somalia and Zimbabwe are all projected to have life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, “indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold,” the authors of The Lancet study write.
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A trio of scenarios
The study was led by Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Foreman and his colleagues used data from the ongoing Global Burden of Disease project, which the IHME coordinates, to create sophisticated statistical models of three types of scenarios for life expectancy and mortality — “most-likely,” “better-health” and “worse-health” — in each of the world’s 195 countries and territories.
The forecasts took into account socioeconomic measures that have a major impact on health, such as income and education levels. They also fed into their statistical models data on 79 independent drivers of health, including tobacco use, obesity, high blood pressure, high blood sugar, as well as access to contraceptives, vaccines and clean water.
The researchers found, not surprisingly, that non-communicable diseases, such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease and cancer, will continue to overtake infectious diseases as the leading causes of death.
It’s important to keep in mind, however, that although these new life expectancy projections are, perhaps, the most comprehensive ones done to date, they are not etched in stone.
“The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories,” said Foreman in a released statement.
“But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers,” he added.
The battle over health care — something that has become a defining feature of the 2018 midterm elections — has, in the final stretch of the campaign, come down to Republicans and Democrats making two different but equally emphatic assurances to voters.
Democrats are running on the argument that Republicans, if they retain majorities in Congress, would take another stab at repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, and would aim to kill some of the law’s most popular planks — including its protections for individuals with pre-existing health conditions.
Republicans, meanwhile, insist that they have never, and would not ever, attempt to undermine the Obamacare provision that helped people with pre-existing conditions access more affordable health coverage. They’re issuing a warning of their own: if Democrats take control on Capitol Hill, they will push plans that would dramatically expand government health care programs — paving the way to ruin them at the expense of the seniors and families who need them most.
[cms_ad:x100]This dynamic has played out across each Minnesota’s battleground U.S. House races, with candidates trading heated barbs in debates and deep-pocketed outside groups dropping millions of dollars worth of TV ads to persuade voters that the other candidate’s views are not only wrong but would destroy the entire U.S. health care system as we know it.
So who’s telling the truth?
Did Republicans really protect people with pre-existing conditions?
A live debate between the candidates in Minnesota’s closely-watched 3rd Congressional District, GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen and Democrat Dean Phillips, illustrated the battle over which party is really protecting people with pre-existing conditions.
Phillips hammered Paulsen on his support for the American Health Care Act, the GOP’s bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, saying the congressman voted “many times” to make it harder for people with pre-existing conditions to access care.
Dean Phillips
“The claim that I don’t support pre-existing conditions is patently false,” Paulsen responded. “In fact, the bill I voted for clearly states out — it’s clearly printed in the bill — nothing in this act shall be construed as permitting health insurance issuers to limit access to health care to individuals with pre-existing conditions.”
“I talk about that every time I talk about need to reform health care,” the congressman said.
There’s a good reason he’s talking about it: three out of four Americans say it’s “very important” that Congress keep the ACA’s provisions that ensure people with pre-existing conditions can access health care, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, which tracks public opinion on health care issues.
Obamacare prohibited insurance companies from denying care, or making care prohibitively expensive, to individuals who were seeking coverage while dealing with a variety of chronic conditions, from depression and diabetes to cancer and asthma.
In devising the AHCA, Republicans were under pressure to rework their bill once initial versions were seen as insufficiently supportive of pre-existing conditions protections. Ultimately, the legislation’s final version did not explicitly allow insurers to deny people coverage, but the overwhelming majority of experts and observers agreed that key components of the bill would have led to decreased access to care for millions of people with pre-existing conditions.
The Republican bill granted states the opportunity to apply for waivers that could exempt them from two planks of Obamacare which were designed to shore up protections for people with pre-existing conditions: essential health benefits and community rating.
The essential health benefits provision, under Obamacare, requires insurers to cover 10 benefits, from prescription drugs to prenatal care, in any health care plan they offer. Community rating is a provision that prohibits insurers from charging any individual more based on their individual health status, which is important for patients with pre-existing conditions.
[cms_ad:x101]States might want a waiver to exempt insurers from these provisions in order to keep them from leaving their state’s individual insurance market — something many insurers have done when costs have grown too high. But because these provisions are aimed at keeping insurers from charging too much to cover people with pre-existing conditions, removing them would make health care prohibitively costly for people with these kinds of conditions.
According to Karen Politz, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation, “The bill explicitly said to states, if you want to waive protections, they can. It set up an explicit process for approving those waivers. It just kind of shifted the decision making to states.”
Proponents of the AHCA said that the federal government would be strict about granting waivers, but many health experts believed otherwise, and predicted that the Trump administration would be eager to undermine Obamacare. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, in scoring the AHCA, found that it would lead to millions of people with pre-existing conditions losing health care coverage.
‘They can read polls’
While Republicans like Paulsen defend their votes on the AHCA, non-incumbent GOP candidates like Pete Stauber in the 8th District are avoiding their party’s health care proposal like the plague and instead emphasizing promises to safeguard pre-existing conditions protections.
In a TV ad featuring his son Isaac, who has Down syndrome, Stauber says his son’s challenges are “why I support requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying.” (Stauber has criticized Obamacare but has declined to say if he would have voted for the AHCA.)
MinnPost photo by Brian Halliday
Pete Stauber
According to Thomas Miller, a senior fellow at the center-right American Enterprise Institute think tank who advised former Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, there’s a good reason behind Republicans’ focus on pre-existing conditions: “They can read polls,” he told MinnPost.
Miller compared the 2018 election to the 2010 election, in which Republicans hammered Democrats on the just-passed and unpopular ACA, while attracting little scrutiny for their own positions. “The Democrats are on the attack, and they don’t have to be accountable for what may have gone on in the past,” he said. “It happened to be Republicans’ turn to own some baggage in out-year elections. They’re caught between where they were, and where they need to be.”
“Republicans want to have it both ways,” said Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School, who has written a book on health care politics. “They made a commitment to repeal the ACA; on the other hand, they’re on the political hot stove right now for repealing the popular part of the law that people have come to expect”
“If you voted for repeal, particularly what the House passed, this was a rolling back of, in effect, pre-existing conditions,” Jacobs said. “Here’s the best test of it: when the House bill that Paulsen and [Rep. Jason] Lewis voted for went to the Senate, the Senate dropped that component.” (Ultimately, the Senate rejected that bill by a one-vote margin in 2017, after moderates like Maine Sen. Susan Collins said it did not do enough to protect people with pre-existing conditions.)
To AEI’s Miller, Republicans don’t have much of a choice beyond simply affirming that they support pre-existing conditions, no matter what their big repeal and replace bill would have actually done. Miller questioned how much success they would have in that mission: “There are limits,” he said, “to relying on the combination of short-term memory loss and cognitive dissonance in electoral politics.”
Medi-SCARE for All?
Republicans’ plan to defend themselves on health care in the midterms has another key component: changing the subject.
In a single tweet, President Donald Trump more or less laid out the essence of the strategy. “All Republicans support people with pre-existing conditions, and if they don’t, they will after I speak to them. I am in total support,” he tweeted on Thursday. “Also, Democrats will destroy your Medicare, and I will keep it healthy and well!”
This is hardly a new talking point: Republicans and Democrats have, at various points, tried to scare voters into thinking the other party would ruin Medicare, the beloved government program that covers health insurance for seniors. What is new, however, is an increasing embrace of Medicare-for-All, or variations of it, in the Democratic Party.
The Kaiser Family Foundation has identified eight bills out of Congress that fall under the aegis of Medicare for All, and KFF’s Politz says that in 2018, slight majorities of the public have come to favor the general idea. (But that can depend on how it’s framed: “Universal coverage” is more popular than “socialized medicine,” for example, says Politz.)
The four Democrats running in Minnesota’s battleground House races all support some level of Medicare expansion: Phillips in CD3, Dan Feehan in the 1st District, and Angie Craig in the 2nd District have each advocated for a Medicare buy-in option. Several different pieces of legislation introduced in Congress propose offering a way for individuals to buy in to the program through the ACA’s insurance marketplaces; another bill limits the option to older people who are not yet 65 years old, the current threshold for Medicare eligibility.
Joe Radinovich, the Democrat running in the 8th, is in favor of the comprehensive brand of single-payer health care, championed by progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and 5th District Rep. Keith Ellison.
It’s that left-wing dream of single-payer that Republicans are choosing to focus on in their attacks, however. In a Star Tribune op-ed, Rep. Lewis argued that “the Obamacare architects are going for the full monty — a $32 trillion socialized-medicine scheme that doubles your payroll and income taxes, throws you off your employer-based plan and ends Medicare as we know it.”
“If Democrats take the House, real market-based health care reform is dead — and so is your plan,” he wrote.
There’s intense debate over Democrats’ Medicare expansion proposals, most of which center on how a massive expansion of government obligation would be paid for — probably a tax increase, which most proponents say should focus on the wealthy — and whether such a tax increase would offset high health care costs borne by individuals.
But in addition to raising concerns about a significant tax increase, Republicans are now arguing that expanding Medicare will make the program worse for the people who already have it. Conservative scholars, like those at the Heritage Foundation, have argued that Democrats’ plans will not control health care costs and will lead to poorer care for everyone receiving it through the government.
Experts like Tricia Neuman, director of Medicare policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, are skeptical. “People may have different views about ‘Medicare for All’ and what it will do, but it’s hard to say they are robbing Medicare,” she told the Washington Post. “They would expand benefits, eliminate premiums, reduce cost sharing. Seniors would get more direct coverage at a lower cost… They would replace the current Medicare program with this new program, that part is true, but it’s replaced with something more generous.”
AEI’s Miller called the GOP’s line of attacks on Medicare a tried-and-true weapon. “That’s a more comfortable resting place for Republicans to talk about health care,” he said. “They know the sheet music. If you think this is a horror, here’s a greater horror.”
“To pile more people in tells a current senior, hey, I got a good deal and someone else is going to come in and take part of my deal,” he said.
“I think this is scare tactics on the part of Republicans to say Democrats would threaten Medicare by extending it to the whole country,” the U of M’s Jacobs said. “But it’s also the case that Democrats invited this criticism, because they’ve been rhetorically playing to progressives by saying they’d implement single-payer, though they’re vague about what it means.”
“Many of the charges made, that everyone is at risk and is going to die tomorrow, that’s an exaggeration. This is the nature of bipolar politics,” Miller says of the health care debate in 2018.
“So sure, do people seeking office, defending office, oversimplify and exaggerate? Welcome to elections every couple of years.”
Dan Feehan, the DFL candidate running in the 1st Congressional District, is being targeted with Nancy Pelosi attacks by his opponent, Jim Hagedorn, who charges that Feehan was “hand-picked” by Pelosi to run in CD1.
In case you’re wondering: Yes, you are seeing a whole lot of political ads — more than $71 million worth of ads across Minnesota airwaves, not even counting the state legislative races.
Candidates and interest groups had bought space for more than 330,000 TV and radio ads as of Oct. 9, still a month before election day. On network and cable television, the ad buys account for nearly 2,600 hours of ad time – enough to cover 107 full days of nothing but political commercials.
If that number seems higher than other estimates floating around, there’s a reason for that. This is the first election cycle for which political advertising can be quantified across radio, television and cable without visiting individual stations; the Federal Communications Commission only now requires cable operators to file ad purchases electronically. Other studies about this year’s campaign ad spending mostly utilize documents from Minnesota’s Campaign Finance Board or the Federal Elections Commission. But the delays in reporting campaign activity to those organizations can be lengthy, while the FCC database is updated regularly.
Still, a complete accounting of the ads isn’t an easy process. Each TV network station, cable company and radio station files its reports via a pdf document, meaning each ad purchase must be collected and counted individually. The process, done on a week-by-week basis, provides an opportunity to study election advertising by campaigns and outside groups in close to real time. (The data doesn’t include satellite companies, who are not required to file in as timely a manner.)
[cms_ad:x100]That accounting was done by a team of student journalists at the University of Minnesota, which has been reviewing each filing for Minnesota’s eight congressional races, two U.S. Senate races and the statewide races for governor, attorney general, state treasurer and state auditor. The process, done on a week-by-week basis, provides an opportunity to study election advertising by campaigns and outside groups in close to real time.
“I think getting a fuller picture of who’s influencing voters is always helpful,” said Dan Weiner, the senior counsel at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program at New York University. “The really important disclosure is the big ad buys, because those are the things that actually bring leverage to people in power.”
Comparisons to previous cycles difficult
Nationally, this year’s election is believed to be the costliest midterm ever. And the level of ad spending in Minnesota reflects its status as a key battleground contest. Much of the money is targeting the state’s four most competitive congressional districts, which could be key in deciding which party controls the U.S. House. Those are four Minnesota races out of 38 nationally in which overall outside spending has outpaced candidate spending, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics.
In all, Minnesota candidates had bought nearly 171,000 ads, spending more than $22 million by Oct. 9. Non-candidate issue groups, such as PACs, super PACs and the political parties’ campaign committees, had bought time for 164,000 ads at a cost of $49 million. Many of the purchases are to reserve time for ads that are yet to run. And more ad space is being purchased every day.
Comparing the levels of ad purchases to previous years is difficult for several reasons – including the looser reporting requirements in previous years. But purchases at the Twin Cities’ four main network stations – WCCO, KSTP, KMSP (FOX9) and KARE – can be compared, and the numbers show large increases in spending by outside groups this year.
For example, outside groups – as opposed to the campaigns of the candidates themselves – spent 23 percent more this year at the four stations with weeks still to go before the election, compared to the entire 2016 election cycle. That’s a $5.2 million increase at the four stations.
It won’t be clear until after the election just how much groups and candidates will spend on ads, however. Many reserve TV and radio air time through election day and often will add or cancel purchases as the election nears. Some will shift purchases from one station to another, and outside groups will cancel ads for a race seen as unwinnable and transfer the spending to other states.
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Outside groups focus on Congress
It’s the outside groups – specifically, the super PACs and the national campaign committees run by each party — that are most dominant on Minnesota airwaves. And the three biggest-spending groups are focused on the U.S. House races, specifically the close races in southern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District ; the southern Twin Cities 2nd District; the Hennepin County suburbs’ 3rd District; and northeastern Minnesota’s 8th District.
The 10 top-spending groups are nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with conservative groups spending slightly more.
Top 10 issue ad spenders by amount
The top 10 groups made up $42 million of the nearly $50 million total dollars spent on issue ad buys so far. Some of the ads for which spots have been purchased may not have yet run.
Source: Federal Communications Commission, compiled by University of Minnesota students
The top spender is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which exists to get Democrats elected to the U.S. House. It had spent more than $12 million on ads by early October. The next two biggest-spending groups are working to elect conservatives. The National Republican Congressional Committee had spent $7.3 million, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, a conservative super PAC, had spent $6.6 million. The fourth highest ad spender is the Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a super PAC that has spent $5 million and has focused mostly on electing DFL gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz.
Often, negative ads are from the outside groups rather than the candidates, in part because that allows the candidates to be more positive, talk about themselves and avoid alienating voters who dislike attack ads. Such attack ads are hard to miss. The DCCC, for example, has aired the ads calling Republican Congressman Jason Lewis “all Washington now,” and claiming he sides with insurance companies over senior citizens. The Congressional Leadership Fund aired the ads saying that Lewis’s District 2 opponent, Democrat Angie Craig, “should be ashamed” for standing behind state Attorney General candidate Keith Ellison, who has been accused of, and has denied, a charge of domestic abuse by an ex-girlfriend.
Of the top 10-spending groups, eight are based in Washington, D.C. That means that Washington has a strong hand in shaping the political views of Minnesota candidates, said Richard Painter, the former chief ethics lawyer for the George W. Bush administration who lost in the Democratic primary race to Sen. Tina Smith.
Those outside spenders “don’t care about the issues of interest to Minnesotans. They just care that their party controls the House,” Painter said. “It’s D.C. money that’s influencing Minnesota races. And that’s common.”
Candidate spending big
It’s not just the outside groups that are spending big on close House races, though. The candidates are too. Of the approximately $22 million spent for TV and radio ads by all of the state’s congressional, U.S. Senate, and governor candidates as of Oct. 9, more than half had been spent in the four closest House races, in Congressional Districts 1, 2, 3 and 8.
The top-spending candidates were Democrat Angie Craig in the 2nd Congressional District, with $2.8 million; followed by the two candidates in the District 3 race — Republican Erik Paulsen and Democrat Dean Phillips — both at about $2.3 million. Craig’s opponent, incumbent Republican Jason Lewis, spent $1.9 million.
Ad spending by campaign in Minnesota U.S. House races
Source: Federal Communications Commission, compiled by University of Minnesota students
In the U.S. Senate races, the incumbents have far outspent their opponents. Democrat Tina Smith had spent $3 million, followed by Democrat Amy Klobuchar at $2 million. Smith’s opponent, Republican Karin Housley, had spent about $1.2 million.
Ad spending by campaign in Minnesota U.S. Senate races
Source: Federal Communications Commission, compiled by University of Minnesota students
In the race for governor, Walz had spent $1.7 million, and Republican Jeff Johnson had spent $654,000.
Ad spending by campaign in the Minnesota governor's race
Source: Federal Communications Commission, compiled by University of Minnesota students
Still, differences in candidate spending have become less important as the outside groups increase their spending. Much of that increase is due to a 2010 Court of Appeals decision that created the so-called “super PACs,” which have no limits or restrictions on money they can raise from corporations, unions, associations and individuals. Unlike traditional PACs, they cannot donate directly to candidates, and they can’t coordinate with the candidates they support. But they can spend unlimited amounts to support or defeat a specific candidate.
Health care and attack ads rule
The outside groups also focus on hot-button issues they know can help their candidate. And while super PACs can’t coordinate with the candidate’s campaign, their ads can sound similar. In many ways, they’re working off the same script.
Take health care. Polling by the Star Tribune and MPR News in September found it was the most important issue to likely voters in both the governor’s race and the special U.S. Senate races. And health care has dominated the political commercials in recent weeks.
Many Republican ads have criticized Democrats for supporting “government run” health care or have claimed that the Affordable Care Act has driven up costs for citizens. Democrats have criticized Republicans for supporting proposals to weaken the Affordable Care Act or for catering to the interests of pharmaceutical companies.
One organization studying six key topics in Minnesota political ads found that health care topped the list. It was mentioned in 58 percent of ads in the state’s federal races in September, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. The second-most mentioned topic was taxes, at 16 percent. Those same issues also topped the list nationally.
Wesleyan also reported what is already clear to any Minnesotan paying attention: negativity rules, especially in the U.S. House races. In a study measuring negativity in House races across the country, two Minnesota districts ranked in the top 10. They were in District 3 (Paulsen vs. Phillips), sixth overall, with 67 percent of ads being negative; and District 1 (Republican Jim Hagedorn vs. Democrat Dan Feehan), eighth overall, with 65 percent negative.
A recent review of the political ads on the 10 p.m. news at the four main Twin Cities stations found that slightly more than half were negative. “In close races, lots of ads tend to be negative,” said Paul Goren, chairman of the University of Minnesota Political Science Department. And there are plenty of close races in Minnesota this year.
This story is part of the Charnley Project at the University of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication. The Charnley Project course is funded by an endowment in the name of the late Mitchell Charnley, a professor and expert in news reporting and broadcast journalism who retired in 1966 and died in 1991. The endowment in his name was created to put students and professors together to produce and publish professional-quality work as part of a class at the journalism school.
Another Heinrich trial. The Associated Press reports (via the St. Cloud Times): “A man who was kidnapped and sexually assaulted as a child by the same man who abducted and killed Jacob Wetterling will get a chance to tell his story in court. … Jared Scheierl was 12 when Danny Heinrich assaulted him in Minnesota, nine months before 11-year-old Jacob was kidnapped in October 1989. … Jacob’s abduction grabbed national headlines and was unsolved until 2016, when Heinrich confessed as part of a plea deal in a child pornography case. He’s serving 20 years in federal prison.”
The eyes of the national GOP are fixed on northern Minnesota. The New York Times’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg writes: “For 70 of the past 72 years, a Democrat has represented this rural corner of northern Minnesota in Congress. But when loggers, foresters and truckers convened on the county fairgrounds here for the annual timber industry expo last month, the star of the “celebrity log-loading” contest was a Republican. … He is Pete Stauber, a former professional hockey player and retired police lieutenant with a ramrod-straight bearing and a politician’s firm grip. He may also be his party’s best hope for pulling off this year’s most improbable feat: flipping a Democratic House seat.”
Maybe not that shocking, unfortunately. For Streetsblog, Angie Schmitt writes: “A ground-breaking experiment in St. Paul, Minn., shows a shocking pattern of dangerous and aggressive behavior towards pedestrians. But also how solvable the problem is given the right attention and policies. … For most of 2018, researcher Nichole Morris, director of the HumanFIRST Laboratory at the University of Minnesota, has been measuring driver yielding at crosswalks around St. Paul.”
Consider this when making weekend plans.The Star Tribune’s Tim Harlow writes: “The leaves are falling and so are the number of road construction projects drivers have to navigate around. But a big one on the weekend comes with a complete shutdown of I-35W in south Minneapolis. … The Minnesota Department of Transportation will close the northbound lanes between Crosstown Hwy. 62 and downtown Minneapolis and the southbound lanes from Interstate 94 to 46th Street on Friday night until Monday morning. The agency is completing a traffic switch and utility work.”
Over 50 years ago, Josie Robinson Johnson led the Minnesota delegation to the March on Washington, D.C., knowing that they would be part of history and aware of the great personal risk they were taking. Johnson has spent her career as a risk taker, a trailblazer, a champion for equality, and, importantly, a role model for public policy students as they seek to follow in her formidable footsteps.
Johnson’s legacy as a leader in the civil rights movement began as a teenager when she and her father gathered signatures on an anti-poll-tax petition in Houston, Texas.
Living in Minnesota since the 1950s, Johnson, Ed.D., has launched numerous mentorship programs for young people of color, developed fair housing and employment programs, led community development and revitalization efforts, and counseled countless leaders across the community, including mayors, governors and university presidents. Johnson has served as the acting director of the Minneapolis Urban League, and is the first African-American appointed to the University of Minnesota’s Board of Regents. She also led the U of M’s minority affairs and diversity efforts. In 1998, the university established the Annual Josie Robinson Johnson Human Rights and Social Justice Award in her honor.
[cms_ad:x100]During our celebration of Johnson, another civil rights icon, Vernon Jordan, delivered the keynote, calling her “[T]he Sojourner Truth and Harriet Tubman of our time.” He added that, “We live in perilous times, when the progress we have seen in our lifetime is under threat. While many things happening in our country are not normal, they also are not new. Our present is an extension of our history, of that ancestral struggle for freedom. And because we have been here before, we know what we need: more Josie Johnsons.”
Without a doubt, Johnson has made an indelible imprint on our nation, and I am proud that the Humphrey School is commemorating her contributions. To see her interact with Humphrey School students, to watch as a simple, sincere handshake from this living legend can spark action, is truly a sight to behold. Here’s what students who have spent time with Johnson tell us: Every interaction with her is memorable. Her words cut through cynicism and negativity, taking root in one’s imagination, and igniting a passion to change the world.
Our school’s namesake, Hubert Humphrey, once said, “Freedom is hammered out on the anvil of discussion, dissent, and debate.” My dream is for the Josie R. Johnson Community Room to become a public gathering place where those difficult conversations happen. This soon-to-be-remodeled gathering space will become a spacious and welcoming forum for advancing Johnson’s work advocating for human rights and social justice.
Similarly, the Humphrey School’s new Josie Robinson Johnson Fellowship will provide support to outstanding full-time graduate students who have a specific interest in addressing racial inequities and injustices. Josie Robinson Johnson Fellows will be encouraged and empowered to innovate; to take bold risks to create, test, and promote new approaches to seemingly intractable racial problems.
The imperative to stand up for equality is never over. When we care to look, every day we will see instances of inequity taking place across our great nation — a sad reminder that while we have come a long way, there remains much more work to do. I can only hope that these Fellows will fully embrace the opportunity to build upon Johnson’s legacy and continue her work addressing inequality, eliminating barriers to opportunity and ensuring everyone has the chance to succeed.
If you’re interested in joining the discussion, add your voice to the Comment section below — or consider writing a letter or a longer-form Community Voices commentary. (For more information about Community Voices, see ourSubmission Guidelines.)
In 1913, when the City of St. Paul purchased the small triangle of land at the corner of Portland and Summit Avenues, it marked the fulfillment of long-held wishes. The Carpenter family, the Victorian-era landowners, had tried for years to preserve a pair of triangular pieces of their land as city parks, and in 1909, as part of the parkland push, a local chapter of the Daughters of the American Revolution commissioned a noble statue to seal the deal.
Over a century later, the park remains a triangular green nestled in the elbow of Summit Avenue, the city’s most elegant street. Hale still stands watch, observing the cars parading by or the occasional wintertime skaters, when part of the small park is flooded with a rink.
But in one corner of the Nathan Hale Park, a problem popped up this year when a neighboring fence mistakenly truncated a slim margin of land. The remnant corner has thrown a dispute into the jurisdiction of the city’s otherwise obscure Parks & Recreation Commission.
[cms_ad:x100]”When the parkland was purchased by the city [in 1913], it had just such an odd angle to it,” said Tucker Carlson, who owns the Portland Avenue house next door to Nathan Hale Park. (For the record, Carlson is not connected to the famous TV host with the same name; however, he is the son of former Minnesota Gov. Arne Carlson.)
When the Carlsons bought the house a few years ago they were led to believe, mistakenly, that a triangle of yard between their walkway and the park was part of the property.
“The piece of land that we’re on was, for the majority of time, one single property,” Carlson said, explaining the park conundrum. “We trusted the previous owner and his real estate agent as they walked the property with us. Where the park land comes across the property, they presented to us a small triangle. We looked at the GIS map, and didn’t have it surveyed at the time. We just trusted them and purchased the house.”
Soon after, the Carlsons did some landscaping to their new home, erecting a small metal fence to edge their front yard.
But as it turned out, the property line ran at an angle and the fence straddled both sides of the park property line. After a complaint from a historically astute park visitor, the Carlsons had a dilemma.
“The piece of land looks like it belongs to this house, but is actually parkland,” explained Carlson. “It hasn’t been maintained by the Parks Department for who knows how long. The previous owner even did some landscaping on there. They even put in a sprinkler system.”
MinnPost photo by Bill Lindeke
The Portland Avenue property line ran at an angle and the fence, shown above, straddled both sides of the park property line.
Faced with the problem, and under the stern gaze of Nathan Hale, the Carlsons petitioned the city for a diversion of a small slice of city parkland. (A “diversion” is the oddly technical term for selling off municipal park land.) Explaining what happened, the Carlsons drafted a proposal to purchase some of the park from the city and have the marginal ground — now less than 1,000 square feet — transferred from the city rolls.
The process proved to be a bit complicated, especially once the city’s Parks Department weighed in opposing the request.
According to city staff, St. Paul’s official policy is to only grant sales of parkland in cases where a clear financial hardship is presented. On wealthy Summit Avenue, that’s almost an impossibility.
[cms_ad:x101]”We routinely get requests to purchase easements for parkland, often for utilities,” explained Paul Sawyer, a management assistant for the St. Paul Parks and Recreation department. “One of the big things we take a look at when we get applications in is whether there’s a hardship at play. We look for circumstances unique to the property, or somebody presenting an application where they’re prevented from being able to use property in a reasonable way. For example, industrial properties that are landlocked who need to get utilities into the site would be a hardship where we might be willing to divert parkland.”
For cities with many parks rubbing shoulders with residential and industrial users, these conflicts come up repeatedly. Requests for diversions, easements, and the like are the sorts of problems that quickly fill parks-related meeting agendas.
“Generally I try to do what would do the greatest good for the most people, a utilitarian philosophy,” explained Chris Meyer, one of the nine members of the Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board.
(Note that Minneapolis is relatively unique among municipal governments in that it has a separately elected Park Board, distinct from other branches of city government. In St. Paul, as in most cities, parks commissioners are appointed rather than elected, and serve a largely advisory role to elected officials.)
In his year on the Minneapolis Park Board, Meyer has faced many issues of diversions or easements, and has managed to work a nuanced position. For example, he explained that in many cases, he defers to commissioners more familiar with specific areas where they live.
On the other hand, when it comes to things like driveway access or curb cuts for cars, Meyer often votes to deny requests.
“We’ve had requests around the lakes for new curb cut access,” Meyer told me. “We turned down one around Lake of the Isles where [someone] wanted a new curb cut.”
In the case of St. Paul’s Nathan Hale park, however, a settlement seems more likely, despite the city’s official opposition to the diversion request.
For his part, Tucker Carlson does not hold a grudge about the Parks & Recreation Commission’s stance against the plan. Instead, he’s taken pains to empathize with the official position of the city, even while campaigning for some leniency in his case.
“The Parks Commission is doing just what they’re supposed to be doing,” Carlson said, having gone through a few steps of the delicate process. “To try to do this properly, we proposed purchasing a piece of land. But it’s a negotiation with the Parks Commission.”
For one thing, the Carlsons received the support of the local Summit-University neighborhood group, an encouraging sign. But then, meeting with the six-member Parks & Recreation Commission, their proposal was denied on a tie vote.
A month later, the Carlsons tried again, this time for a smaller piece of land at the margins of Nathan Hale Park. This time it was approved.
Courtesy of Tucker Carlson
The Carlsons drafted a proposal to purchase some of the park from the city and have the marginal ground transferred from the city rolls.
The next steps are for the diversion proposal to go to an official committee and for the sliver of land to be properly appraised for a sale to the neighbors. If the deal is approved by the City Council — and by order of the City Charter, the diversion requires a 2/3 supermajority — the land swap becomes final.
If Nathan Hale were alive, one can imagine him taking a stubborn stance regarding his small triangle of land. After all, he was a defiant martyr.
On the other hand, it’s also possible to imagine Hale, clearly no fan of unnecessary imperial restrictions, as more empathetic. One might hear him saying, “I only regret that I have but 700 square feet of parkland to lose to my neighbor.”